Probabilistic and Fuzzy Fault-Tree Analyses for Modelling Cave-in Accidents

Probabilistic and Fuzzy Fault-Tree Analyses for Modelling Cave-in Accidents

H.M. Al-Humaidi 

Kuwait University, Kuwait

30 September 2013
| Citation



Construction injury accidents result from different causes. Risk evaluation for cave-ins using tradi-tional Fault-Tree Analysis (FTA) can be difficult, especially since the variables resulting in cave-ins are unique; in addition, historical data, when available, are often incomplete. In construction, the assess-ment of risk is based on linguistic terms using subjective judgment of linguistic values such as severe, very likely, etc. Such linguistic terms are best modelled using fuzzy set theory. The traditional FTA method has been widely used to calculate the probability of the top undesired event, which is based on the historical data of the occurrence and the severity of the basic events. FTA implementation into construction projects needs to be modified since assessment of contributing events to cave-in accidents is based on managerial experience using experiential subjective expressions. This paper introduces a fuzzy triangular model to assess risks associated with excavation work in advance and helps manage-ment prepare solutions in advance.


Cave-in accidents, construction safety, fuzzy fault-tree analysis, fuzzy logic, fuzzy set, proba-bilistic fault-tree analysis


[1] Al-Humaidi, H.M., A Fuzzy Logic Approach to Model Delays in Construction Projects, Doctoral of Philosophy Dissertation, The Ohio State University, 2007.

[2] Klir, G. & Yuan, B., Fuzzy Sets and Fuzzy Logic: Theory and Applications, Prentice-Hall: Upper Saddle River, NJ, 1995.

[3] Ross, T., Fuzzy Logic with Engineering Applications, Wiley: NY (USA), 2004.

[4] Vargas C.A. & Hadipriono, F.C., A Fault-tree Model forFalls from a Form Scaffolding. Proceedings First International Conference of CIB Working Commission, pp. 195–201.

[5] Zadeh, L.A., Fuzzy sets. Information Control, 8, pp. 338–353, 1965. doi: http://dx.doi. org/10.1016/S0019-9958(65)90241-X