Enhancing Food Security in Central Asia and the Caucasus: A SWOT Analysis of Agro-Industrial Potential

At present, the food crisis is a major risk that threatens the global economy. The risks faced by the world's food markets are aggravated via the Russian-Ukrainian conflict's trade restrictions in food, fuel, with fertilizers, which caused a sharp rise in input prices, changes in transportation routes, and commodity supply chain disruption.

The focus of this research on food security in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) is critical due to several interconnected socioeconomic and environmental factors that directly impact the sustainability of the region's development. First, food security is a cornerstone of sustainable development, as outlined in the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 2: Zero Hunger [1]. Ensuring access to safe, nutritious, and sufficient food is essential for the well-being of populations and the stability of economies [2, 3].

The CCA, with its diverse agricultural systems and varying levels of economic development, faces unique challenges in achieving food security [4]. These include inefficient use of water resources, energy-intensive agricultural practices, and a heavy reliance on imports for key agricultural inputs. These challenges are exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, climate change, and environmental degradation, which threaten the region's ability to maintain a stable food supply. Therefore, evaluating the food security situation in the region is crucial for understanding how these factors affect the ability to achieve sustainable and resilient agricultural systems [5-7].

This research focus is justified by the region's strategic importance as an agricultural producer. CCA countries possess significant untapped potential in agricultural production and export capacity, but this potential can only be realized through sustainable practices. By addressing inefficiencies in resource use and improving local agricultural productivity, the region can contribute to its food security and global food supply chains.

Proceeding from the fact that CCA countries are chosen as the object for this study, the purpose of the article is to assess the level of food security of the CCA, and the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats to the realization of production, resource, and export potential of the agro-industrial complexes (AIC) in CCA countries.

Despite growing scholarly interest in food security within the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA), several critical gaps persist in the literature that hinder the development of effective agro-industrial strategies for the region. Existing research has shown that most studies are focused on analyzing the situation rather than providing a solution, and further experiments should be utilized to provide more effective strategies. Recent studies are often focused on the agricultural spectrum of food security, neglecting the role consumer behavior plays in sustainability [8].

Most research articles focus mainly on the broad assessments of food security, emphasizing trade balances, import dependence reduction, agricultural output, and policy frameworks. However, there is limited integration of qualitative and quantitative analysis that comprehensively evaluates food security across multiple dimensions (i.e., availability, access, utilization, and stability) within the diverse socioeconomic and environmental landscapes of CCA countries.

While studies frequently highlight Central Asia’s reliance on food imports, few examine the self-sufficiency of internal agro-industrial products, nor do they provide a comparative analysis of actual versus recommended food consumption per capita across different nations. This gap makes it difficult to assess whether existing policies, trade regulations, and production capacities align with the nutritional needs of the population. Furthermore, the role of agro-industrial complexes in enhancing food security remains underexplored, with literature focusing more on the agro and less on the industrial spectrum [9].

This study aims to bridge these gaps by combining theoretical generalization, comparative analysis, and mathematical modeling to assess the extent to which the CCA’s agro-industrial sector can meet food security demands, both through domestic production and strategic imports. By doing so, it contributes valuable insights into policy coherence, agricultural planning, and sustainable development in the region.

In the introduction of this paper the relevance of the study is stated. Further, in a literary review section, approaches to the concept of food security in global practice and the region are examined. The research results include the analysis of food security in the CCA, the ratio of actual indicators, and adopted consumption standards and SWOT analysis of the production, resource, and export potential of the AIC in CCA countries.

A qualitative-quantitative approach was used as the basis for this study. The following research methods were chosen to achieve the research goal:

-Theoretical summarization to determine the theoretical foundations of food security,

-The method of comparison to conduct a comparative analysis of the concepts of food security in CCA countries,

-Structural-logical analysis in determining the level of self-sufficiency in basic AIC products and the ratio of factual consumption of basic food products per person to the consumption standards adopted in CCA countries,

-SWOT analysis to analyze the production, resource, and export potential of the AIC in CCA countries.

Analytical and statistical data were selected from the information provided by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), national statistical offices, FAO, and the Interstate Statistical Committee of the CIS. International documents and scientific sources were selected using the international databases Web of Science and Scopus based on the keywords "food security", "agricultural sector", "agro-industrial complex", and "regional security" in Russian and English with the publication date limited to no more than 10 years ago.

The AIC is of assessed importance to the socioeconomic growth of the CCA since it greatly improves agricultural output as a portion of GDP throughout all countries within the region (from 4.76% within Azerbaijan to 23.47% within Uzbekistan) so greatly represents a source of revenue to a large segment of the population.

Our findings demonstrate that domestic production of basic food products does not cover the internal needs of CCA countries, which forces them to import foodstuffs. High dependence on agri-food imports makes these countries vulnerable to price fluctuations in external markets and affects the level of export revenues. However, the situation varies from country to country.

Kazakhstan as one of the world's largest grain exporters faced the problem of having no access to external grain markets, primarily in Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa: pre-conflict costs of transportation to these regions for Ukraine and Russia were immeasurably lower than Kazakhstan's. As a result, the country has become the world's leading supplier of flour to Central Asia [27]. Although virtually all countries in the region are developing their grain programs, they are not effective enough. Except for Kazakhstan, the countries in this region have no natural and climatic advantages and no historical experience in grain production. Their grain is always more expensive and lower in quality and, therefore, cannot compete.

In Uzbekistan, cotton has traditionally been a competitor in food crop production. Its profitability in the world market is much higher than that of grain. Under free market conditions, grain production is unlikely to develop in the country in volumes sufficient for domestic consumption [20].

Today, in most cases, governments are trying to increase the productivity of individual large enterprises created at the expense of budgetary investments or subsidized by the state. The effects of such projects are often compelling, allowing a critical mass of such enterprises to be quickly created to satisfy domestic demand or exports.

Thus, the development of the AIC and participation in regional trade have contributed to solving the food security problem in the CCA.

Significant progress in food production has been noted in Kazakhstan (for all product groups except sugar), which is now a net exporter in terms of energy value and an active participant in international trade [23].

Uzbekistan has increased its food production, but due to rapid population growth, this progress is not sufficient to fully cover the country’s internal demand. Consequently, net food imports, measured by energy value, have risen [40].

The key trend that has contributed to a favorable level of food security in the CCA is the growth of cereal crop production in Kazakhstan and especially Russia (the main importer of cereal products to CCA countries). This is due to the fact that wheat is one of the most important staple foods. Around 70% of wheat consumption is food-related, and it also is a component of many food products. Kazakhstan (together with Russia) has entered the world's top 10 in terms of grain production and exports.

For most other food categories, the situation is not so clear-cut. The CCA has a slight production surplus in vegetables and melons, a balance in potatoes, meat, milk, and eggs, and a need for imports in vegetable oils, also covered by Russia.

The analysis of production, consumption, and import/export of food products in the CCA also indicates inter-state production specialization, determined both by natural and climatic conditions and by the existing needs of several CCA countries for some categories of food products. Trade relations between CCA countries are a necessary condition for resolving the intra-regional problem of food security.

Thus, mutual trade between CCA countries has been steadily growing and the volume of mutual exports of food products has increased significantly over the last two decades. The predominant share of food supply to the CCA domestic market is provided by Kazakhstan, which is the key food producer in the region. Kazakhstan is the leading importer in the CCA market. Uzbekistan also acts as a major importer.

In the three decades after the collapse of the USSR, the CCA has overcome the challenges of ensuring intra-regional food security (including through the growth of mutual trade) and increased the production of basic food products.

Considering the agricultural potential of the CCA, low crop yields and livestock productivity indicate that the AIC of CCA countries has significant potential, subject to technological advances in production. Rising temperatures in Central Asian countries may lead to a decrease in river runoff and create risks for the AIC and food security in the region.

The product structure of the resource potential of CCA countries differs significantly due to the specialization of the agricultural sector. In Kazakhstan, the main contribution is and will be made by the production of cereals; in Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and Armenia – by vegetables, melons, and fruits; in Kyrgyzstan – by dairy products and fruits; in Tajikistan – by vegetables and melons.

Researchers believe that given the significant potential of its AIC, the CCA is characterized by moderate expectations regarding the increase in domestic consumption in the long term. This trend results from multidirectional demographic trends and the population's diet, which is already sufficient in energy value [22].

Ensuring food security is a priority in the agroindustrial policy of CCA countries. SWOT analysis of the potential of the AIC in CCA countries suggests that increasing agrarian exports is a task that will enable better realization of the existing resource potential of CCA countries (without compromising food security).

However, the CCA is still distinguished by significant differences between countries in food production and consumption. During 2021, the proportion of domiciles whose consumer spendings were under the price of sustenance equaled 65–70% within Armenia and 70–75% throughout Kazakhstan plus Kyrgyzstan. Consumption standards existed at an even diminished level in Kyrgyzstan as in Armenia.

Augmenting reciprocal commerce and collaboration represents another vital element toward guaranteeing the food security of CCA countries. This permits one to construct partnerships, first, also to concentrate efforts not on achieving food independence but on augmenting the economic and physical accessibility of food, second, which includes expanding supplies from neighboring countries.

The impeding element to achieve the AIC potential of the region involves deficits regarding transport with logistics. Deficient logistics alongside storage systems throughout CCA countries precipitate losses including 40% of domestic agricultural products. Regional logistics systems still exist at a comparatively immature stratum. Approximately 70% of comestibles able to be cultivated within CCA nations are imported. This transpires due to commerce beyond the vicinity. Removing such constraints requires a connected transport infrastructure including roads, railroads, seaports, distribution centers, agro-logistics facilities, etc. Increasing importance is attached to the integrated development of a unified Eurasian transportation framework, which should rely on modern digital technologies, making it possible to improve the accuracy of planning and safety of products and reduce delivery times.

The most promising external markets for CCA countries are China, India, Southeast Asia (Vietnam), the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Iran), and North Africa (Egypt). The potential import capacity for food imports to these countries exceeds the possible export volumes of CCA countries, which indicates additional opportunities to increase supplies to foreign markets. To access these markets, CCA countries need to significantly improve logistics in the southern and eastern directions.

An advisable step in realizing the potential of the AIC is the development of major players in the food market at the national and regional levels, which should include participants from all the stages of the food production and export chain. This will make it possible to increase the productivity and competitiveness of food products produced in CCA countries in foreign markets. The participation of major players will make it easier to build a network of logistics centers and fill the AIC with efficient transport facilities.

However, the emergence of large and efficient market players in CCA countries is challenging and may take time. It is necessary to develop cooperation between small farms, which can be achieved through the creation of special institutions to counteract the problem of small-scale commodity production, for example, through the formation of an effective system of purchasing agricultural products and a network of service and procurement centers (SPC).

The main source of structural limitations for CCA countries is water scarcity, which will only increase in the future, limiting the potential for agricultural land expansion. The resolution of the food security problem is closely connected with improving the efficiency of water and energy sector management and water-saving technologies.

The economies of CCA countries are highly energy- and water-intensive, including agriculture. The socioeconomic development of Central Asian countries in the Aral Sea basin has long been affected by the depletion of water resources, which determines the predominant vector of interstate relations. Water scarcity has largely resulted from poorly organized water use and the poor condition of water infrastructure. Critically insufficient water availability, uneven distribution of water resources among the countries, and growing environmental problems in the CCA demonstrate the need to coordinate activities based on common interests.

The high dependence of CCA countries' AICs on investment and intermediate goods imports could be another challenge for preserving the region's food security. To address the issue in the long term, it is necessary to develop the technological base of the AIC with state support in the development of agricultural science, domestic breeding and genetics, agricultural engineering, and the production of fertilizers, veterinary drugs, and fodder additives.

A separate set of steps should focus on improving rules and policies: encouraging local demand to avoid overproduction (through food purchases, support for low-income groups, etc.) and removing trade barriers within Central Asia (like in transport, taxes, and technical rules). Competition among local producers in meat, vegetable, and fruit markets may increase. Countries with large markets, such as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, should ease import rules and develop farming sectors with strong export potential. Another important step is to strengthen financial support for agriculture, including using local currencies for trade and creating a shared system for export insurance.