Anis Ali
© 2025 The author. This article is published by IIETA and is licensed under the CC BY 4.0 license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
OPEN ACCESS
The Saudi Arabian economy has been based on the exports of petroleum products for the last years. External environment factors affect demand and the revenue of exports of the petroleum products of Saudi Arabia. There is a need to develop other sources of economic contribution to hedge against the revenue fluctuations of petroleum exports due to the external business environment or uncontrollable factors. This research aims to focus on measuring the non-oil economic contribution to the GDP of Saudi Arabia, rather than the oil revenue contribution, comparatively. The secondary data used in the study were obtained from the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) for the years 2010–2024. FBI (Fixed base index numbers), CBI (chain base index numbers), CV (Coefficient of Variation), and ATGR (Average Trend Growth Rate) are applied to get the trend and abnormality of variability of data. FBI measures the change in the value of a variable in the context of one fixed base year, while CBI measures it in the context of the previous year. ANOVA (Analysis of Variance), EWATGR (Effective Weighted Average Trend Growth Rate), and PEWATGR (Proportional Effective Weighted Average Trend Growth Rate) are applied to get the significant differences among the growth trends, growth rate of unequal components of a variable, and proportional contribution. In this study, data from a few categories are compared using a clustered column chart. It is inevitable to focus on agriculture, forestry, and fishing; other mining and quarrying; electricity, gas, and water by the Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture; and the Ministry of Energy of Saudi Arabia to enhance the quantitative proportional contribution for non-oil GDP to shift the oil economy to a non-oil economy. The Saudi government may apply lower rates of taxes on the goods and services identified as zero-rated, to enhance the proportional contribution of the net taxes on products.
oil sector, non-oil sector, economic growth, Weighted Average Trend Growth Rate, GDP, Saudi Arabia
The economy of Saudi Arabia has been identified as an oil-based economy in the world for years. In contrast, the pattern of the Saudi economy is in a shifting pattern, switching from an oil-based economy to a non-oil-based economy due to development, modernization, and liberalization, and fluctuation in oil prices internationally. Renewable energy and sustainable development directed diversification of the Saudi Arabian economy by exploring the non-oil avenues. In order to achieve the goals of Vision 2030, the Saudi Arabian government is focusing on sustainable development growth, private sector participation, and promoting non-oil sectors like tourism, manufacturing, finance, and information technology. These endeavors are intended to shift the economic pattern from oil to a non-oil economy to make a knowledge-based and sustainable economy. Measuring the non-economic growth is essential to get the results of efforts applied to shift the economic pattern of Saudi Arabia. There is a spiral trend growth seen in the oil sector, non-oil sector, net taxes on products, and total GDP of Saudi Arabia (year 2010 to 2024).
Figure 1. GDP and components of GDP of Saudi Arabia
There are abnormal fluctuations seen in the oil sector's contribution to GDP, while the net taxes contribution is negligible, but in a progressive growth trend in recent years (Figure 1). The aggregate growth of GDP indicates only the overall growth of the economy, while segregation and comparison between the sectoral contribution to GDP and non-oil components to non-oil GDP explore the major contributors and their trend of contribution to non-oil GDP. The growth trend of contributors to oil and non-oil GDP reveals diversification or a shifting pattern. Internal trend or sensitivity of the oil and non-oil contributors explains the inter-sectoral pattern of contribution. It is necessary to measure and analyze the growth pattern of the non-oil economy in the context of the oil economy to explain the growth trend of components of non-oil GDP and to frame the strategies to achieve the goals of Vision 2030 in Saudi Arabia.
Oil and non-oil exports affect the revenue and enhance the growth of the economy. Alabdulwahab [1] found the impact of the oil GDP on the non-oil GDP in Saudi Arabia. The oil economy affects the non-oil economy symmetrically and indicates the challenges in diversifying the economy. Aljebrin [2] discovered that non-oil exports and non-oil economic growth were positively and significantly correlated. Additionally, he discovered a strong and favorable correlation between capital and non-oil economic growth over the long and short terms. Aljebrin [3] established the contribution of non-oil exports to economic development in Saudi Arabia. He suggested diversifying its exports to develop the new infrastructure and capital to support the production of exports and domestic use items for a symmetric relationship between oil and non-oil sectors in the Saudi Arabian economy. Khayat [4] found that the non-oil exports have a significant impact on the economic growth in Saudi Arabia in the long run. Surprisingly, oil exports negatively affect economic growth in the long run. He recommended supporting the production of non-oil exports by providing low-interest-rate loans and setting favorable legislation to promote the non-oil exports and develop non-oil production in Saudi Arabia. The economic development of Saudi Arabia is the composition of the contributions of the oil and non-oil sectors. Abdulrahman [5] investigated how Saudi Arabia's economic growth is supported by both oil and non-oil exports. In order to boost Saudi Arabia's economic growth, Hasanov et al. [6] promoted an increase in exports. According to their estimates, manufacturing contributes three times as much to the growth of non-oil exports as agriculture does. Saudi non-oil exports are also influenced by transportation, communication, insurance, and other commercial services. Short-term causal correlations between GDP, oil exports, and non-oil exports were discovered by Mohsen [7]. Oil revenue or oil exports, and the non-oil sector, enhance the revenue and contribute to the progressive growth of the economy. Al Rasasi et al. [8] found a strong relationship between government oil revenue and non-oil private activity. They suggested investing in infrastructure development and setting favorable rules and regulations to develop the private sector of Saudi Arabia. Raid et al. [9] explain that the non-oil sector hedges against oil price shocks in Saudi Arabia. They recommend that cooperation between the public and private sectors will enhance the economy and align with the objectives of Vision 2030 in Saudi Arabia. Hasanov et al. [10] explored the positive impacts of non-oil capital and labor on the non-oil GDP in the long run. They suggested improving the business environment, economic and social infrastructure, and business regulatory framework to attract more foreign investments. The government should support the non-oil economy by providing financial and technical assistance in the short and long run. Hemrit and Benlagha [11] found a positive relationship between government expenditure and the non-oil GDP of Saudi Arabia. Oil exports had a greater impact on GDP, and recommended to increase non-oil exports to diversify the economy. The shifting of the Saudi Arabian economy is necessary to hedge against the volatility of oil prices, as the Saudi Arabian economy is based on the export of oil revenue. Nurunnabi [12] proposed six elements—innovation, economy, education and employment, information and communications technology, and human capital—to make Saudi Arabia a knowledge economy. Numerous issues pertaining to human capital have been discovered, including research and unemployment among Saudi Arabia's university-educated female population. The contribution of the private sector enhances the diversification of the Saudi Arabian economy. Llanos-Antczak [13] identified the four main areas to shift oil-based economies to knowledge-based economies. Development of and changes in the private sector, government assistance in the field of research and education, innovations, and new technologies, especially communications, and human resource development will shift the oil-based economy to a knowledge-based economy. Al Naimi [14] found that the Saudi Arabian government must consider investment in human capital and the non-oil sector, like tourism. He suggested improving the quality of education and enhancing the level of research in the nation. Guendouz and Ouassaf [15] found a positive correlation between economic diversification and GDP in Saudi Arabia. But there is a negative correlation found between non-oil GDP to GDP, non-oil government revenue to government revenue, and contribution to the private sector to diversification in Saudi Arabia. Sultan and Haque [16] found a positive long-term relationship between the economic growth, oil exports, and consumption expenditures of the government in Saudi Arabia. While imports and economic growth are negatively associated in Saudi Arabia. They recommended the diversification of the economy by considering the import-substituting industries in Saudi Arabia. The consumption of the domestic production must be enhanced which will align with the goals of Vision 2030 and be favorable for economic development. Hasanov and Razek [17] advocated that the consideration of driving forces is necessary to enhance the contribution of the non-oil sector up to 50% to achieve the goals of Vision 2030. They suggested locally manufactured products in place of imported products to diversify the economy in Saudi Arabia. To attract foreign investment, technological development is necessary in the fields of business environment, social infrastructure, and economy. The petroleum sources are the terminative in nature and are depleted absolutely. In their study of Saudi Arabia's long-term economic growth, Alodadi and Benhin [18] discovered that petroleum was a significant source of income. But petroleum is a delectable source and cannot rely on a long for sustainable development. They found that religious tourism affects economic growth to a greater extent, while non-oil exports insignificantly contribute GDP of Saudi Arabia. Also, government expenditure reflects a positive impact on the economic growth in Saudi Arabia. According to Shili and Panjwani [19], tax revenue has a greater impact on economic growth in Saudi Arabia than non-oil, non-tax revenue from other sources, such as non-tax revenue from gas, water, electricity, construction, wholesale and retail trade, transportation and communication, home ownership, finance, insurance, and business, community and social services, and government service providers. They suggested promoting and enhancing the domestic production to enhance tax revenue, and self-reliance, and diversifying the economy through different sectors like tourism, agriculture, and FDI in Saudi Arabia. Medhioub [20] investigated how FDI helps Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar diversify their economies. Euchi et al. [21] found the highest contribution of oil production, followed by tourism and entrepreneurship activity in Saudi Arabia. According to Alam et al. [22], there is a long-term positive correlation between Saudi Arabia's GDP, exports, public spending on education, and investment. Saudi Arabia's economy is adversely affected by imports, government health spending, and other government expenditures. They suggested enhancing expenditures on education and lowering health care expenditures to contribute Saudi Arabian GDP in the long run. The diversification from oil to non-oil sources affects the economy and economic growth of Saudi Arabia. Al-Roubaie and Al Mubarak [23] established that economic diversification increases sectoral production and mitigates the oil price volatility. SMEs are the means of diversification, but the development of SMEs in the Arab world is not satisfactory for diversification. The participation of private sector SMEs must be enhanced by providing technical, financial, and managerial assistance and creating a suitable business environment for the development of the Private SMEs in the Arab world. Samman and Shahnawaz [24] advocated for diversifying the economy to face the challenges of dependency on hydrocarbons in Saudi Arabia. Diversification enhances productivity and strengthens the economy. Adoption of an open trade policy and flexibility to adjust to the shocks of oil prices is necessary. According to Jolo et al. [25], diversity is enhanced by financial development, labor force participation, education, gross capital formation, and business regulations. Additionally, diversification is adversely affected by real GDP growth, foreign direct investment, and the self-employment rate. because knowledge-based achievements are in opposition to the resource-based approach. According to Houfi [26], economic diversification has a long-term favorable effect on Saudi Arabia's economic development. The diversification symmetrically and positively responds to positive and negative fluctuations in economic growth. Saudi Arabia is attaining the success of economic growth through economic diversification. In Saudi Arabia, Naseem [27] discovered a favorable correlation between tourism and economic expansion. Arrivals of tourists positively and strongly affect the GDP of Saudi Arabia, other than factors associated with tourism. There are some obstacles in the path of the diversification of the economy. Banafea and Ibnrubbian [28] concluded that the last two development plans of Saudi Arabia were effective enough towards diversification of the economy. Due to the poor performance of the private sector, the Saudi Arabian economy needs a supportive regulatory environment to draw in large international corporations and reduce its reliance on oil. The fluctuations of the oil prices negatively affect the growth of the Saudi Arabian economy. Jawadi and Ftiti [29] confirmed the role of oil in the economic growth of the Saudi Arabian economy. But the effect of the oil revenue on the economy varies with the market price of the oil. The diversification will mitigate the impact of the oil price shocks on the economy. So, the shifting from the oil-based economy to non-oil revenue sources is necessary for the sustainable growth and development of the economy. As Ahmed [30] explained that the UAE government realized that shifting from an oil to a non-oil economy is necessary to lower the negative impacts of fluctuations in oil prices. He suggested making investments in agriculture, livestock, and fishing to enhance the contribution to the UAE economy. The available studies regarding the impact of the oil and non-oil sectors on the Saudi Arabian economy reveal the progressive growth of the non-oil sector and advocate diversification or shifting the pattern of the economy from the oil to the non-oil sector. But there are no specific studies available to explore the growth trend or the symmetry of the absolute and proportional growth trend among the GDP and oil and non-oil components of GDP of Saudi Arabia. In order to achieve the objectives of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, the sector must be prioritized following an analysis of the growth pattern of the non-oil components of GDP and an investigation of the underutilized non-oil industries to accelerate economic growth. The following research framework was applied to measure the non-oil economic growth in the context of the oil economy and its impact on the aggregate growth of GDP of Saudi Arabia.
To analyze the growth trend of oil and non-oil components of Saudi Arabian GDP, the following hypotheses are framed to determine the significant differences between the oil and non-oil sectors and within components of the oil and non-oil sectors. The GDP of Saudi Arabia consists of the oil, non-oil sector, and taxes on products. While non-oil sector is the aggregation of the Agriculture, Forestry, and fishing; Other mining and Quarrying (other than oil); Manufacturing Excluding petroleum; Electricity, Gas, and Water; Construction; Wholesale retail trade, restaurants, and hotels; Transport, storage and communication; real estate; Finance, Insurance, and Business Services; Community Social and personal services; Government Activities; and Net Taxes on products. The following research design was applied to measure the economic growth of Saudi Arabia (Figure 2).
Figure 2. Research design to measure non-oil economic growth in the context of oil economic growth
H01: There is no significant difference between the growth trends of GDP and the components of GDP.
H02: There is no significant difference among the proportional growth trends of all components of GDP.
H03: There is no significant difference among the growth trends of all components of the Non-oil GDP of Saudi Arabia.
H04: There is no significant difference among the proportional growth trends of all components of the non-oil GDP of Saudi Arabia.
The testing of the above hypotheses identifies the contribution trend of the oil and non-oil sectors, as well as the contribution of the components of the non-oil sectors to the GDP, and highlights the significance of their contributions to the Saudi Arabian economy.
The study is based on the secondary data extracted from the website of the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA- Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority). Fixed Base Index Numbers (FBI) and Average Trend Growth Rate (ATGR) are applied to determine the growth trend of the variables. Chain-Based Index Numbers (CBI) and Coefficient of Variation (CV) are applied to get the sensitivity and the abnormality of the variability of variables. FBI measures the change in the value of a variable in the context of one fixed base year, while CBI measures it in the context of the previous year. ANOVA was applied to get the significant mean difference among the growth trends of GDP and its components, and the mean difference of the proportional growth trend of the components of non-oil GDP of Saudi Arabia. Clustered column charts are used to compare the variables [31]. EWATGR (Effective Weighted Average Trend Growth Rate) and PEWATGR (Proportional Effective Weighted Average Trend Growth Rate) are applied to get the effective growth rate of unequal components of a variable and proportional contribution. A clustered column chart is used to compare variables of a few categories.
$\begin{aligned} & \text { Average Trend Growth Rate }\left(\mathrm{ATGR}_{\mathrm{i}}\right)& \qquad=\frac{\text { Average of } \mathrm{FBI}-100}{\text { Average of } \mathrm{FBI}} 100\end{aligned}$ (1)
Fixed Base Index Numbers $(\mathrm{FBI})=\frac{V C Y}{V B Y} 100$ (2)
Chain-based Index Numbers $(\mathrm{CBI})=\frac{V C Y}{V P Y} 100$ (3)
Coefficient of Variation $(\mathrm{CV})=\frac{\sigma}{\text { Mean }}$ (4)
$\begin{aligned} & \text { ANOVA }(\mathrm{F})& =\frac{\text { Sum of Sqaure between } \frac{\text { Samples }}{k-1}}{\text { Sum of Sqares within } \frac{\text { Samples }}{N-k}} ; \text { if } \mathrm{F} *& >\mathrm{F} \alpha * *, \text { Reject } \mathrm{H}_0\end{aligned}$ (5)
Effective Weighted Average Trend Growth rate $\left(\mathrm{EWATGR}_{\mathrm{i}}\right)=\mathrm{AGTR}_{\mathrm{i}} \times$ Proportional Contribution$_{\mathrm{i}}$ (6)
Proportional Effective Weighted Average Trend Growth rate $\left(\right.$PEWATGR$\left._{\text {i}}\right)=\frac{\text { EWATGRi }}{\sum\text{EWATGR }} 100$ (7)
where,
VCY = Variables in current years;
VBY = Variables in base years;
VPY = Variables in previous years;
σ = Standard deviation of the population;
k = No. of groups;
N = Total no. of variables;
Proportional Contributioni = Average absolute amount contribution of Ith Component / Average total absolute amount of all Components.
The coefficient of variation is explained based on the given parameters (Table 1).
Table 1. Interpretations of CV
|
Range of CV |
Degree of CV |
Interpretations |
|
Less than 10% (0.10) |
Very Low Variability |
There is consistency in the data. |
|
10% (0.10) to 20% (0.20) |
Low Variability |
The normal variability in the data. |
|
20% (0.20) to 30% (0.30) |
Moderate Variability |
The acceptable variability in the data. |
|
30% (0.30) and above |
High Variability |
The variability is abnormal and unacceptable. |
The analysis of measuring non-oil economic growth can be divided into two broad categories.
4.1 Oil and non-oil sectors of Saudi Arabia
The Saudi Arabian GDP comprises oil and non-oil sectors and gradually contributes to the country's economy. To assess the non-oil economic growth, it is necessary to measure both oil sector growth and growth in other sectors. The components of Saudi Arabia's economy can be divided into three categories: the oil sector, the non-oil sector, and net taxes on products.
4.1.1 Status, growth trend, and sensitivity of the institutional sectors of Saudi Arabia
The absolute amount of GDP, the oil sector, the non-oil sector, and the net taxes on products explain the status of the economy, while the growth trend and sensitivity reveal the growth pattern in the long run, as well as the abnormality of the variables.
From Table 2, it is obvious that the average contribution of the non-oil sector (2073710 Million SAR) is higher than that of the oil sector (1050543 Million SAR) and taxes on products (92044 Million SAR). The average growth rate of the non-oil sector (47.64%) is higher than the oil sector growth rate (15.97%). The growth rate of the net taxes on products is highest (84.06%), but the absolute contribution is negligible. So, the growth rate of the non-oil sector is effective than the oil sector growth, and the non-oil sector growth, as its contribution is highest and the growth rate is higher than the growth rate of the GDP, oil sector, and net taxes on products. The relative consistency of the variability of the GDP (CV = 0.13) and the non-oil sector (CV = 0.05) is good, while the oil sector (CV = 0.36) and taxes on products (0.52) reflect the volatility of variables due to some abnormal factors.
Table 3 establishes that the growth rate of the GDP, the oil sector, the non-oil sector, and net taxes on profit are different. Overall, there is consistency in the non-oil sector growth rate (CV = 0.05), and trend growth rate (47.64%) is effective than the oil sector (15.97%) due to the higher rate and absolutely higher contribution to GDP. Also, the growth rate of non-oil is more effective than the growth rate of net taxes on products due to its higher absolute amount (Table 2).
Table 2. Status, growth trend, and sensitivity of GDP and its institutional sectors in Saudi Arabia
|
Years |
GDP |
FBI |
CBI |
Oil Sector |
FBI |
CBI |
Non-oil Sector |
FBI |
CBI |
Net Taxes on Products |
FBI |
CBI |
|
2010 |
1980777 |
100 |
100 |
880393 |
100 |
100 |
1085716 |
100 |
100 |
14669 |
100 |
100 |
|
2011 |
2552477 |
129 |
129 |
1276603 |
145 |
145 |
1258589 |
116 |
116 |
17285 |
118 |
118 |
|
2012 |
2819705 |
142 |
110 |
1376968 |
156 |
108 |
1421243 |
131 |
113 |
21494 |
147 |
124 |
|
2013 |
2886583 |
146 |
102 |
1291352 |
147 |
94 |
1574057 |
145 |
111 |
21174 |
144 |
99 |
|
2014 |
2951824 |
149 |
102 |
1198072 |
136 |
93 |
1730232 |
159 |
110 |
23520 |
160 |
111 |
|
2015 |
2600305 |
131 |
88 |
660412 |
75 |
55 |
1913899 |
176 |
111 |
25995 |
177 |
111 |
|
2016 |
2584798 |
130 |
99 |
596291 |
68 |
90 |
1962645 |
181 |
103 |
25862 |
176 |
99 |
|
2017 |
2779748 |
140 |
108 |
736292 |
84 |
123 |
2020078 |
186 |
103 |
23378 |
159 |
90 |
|
2018 |
3324619 |
168 |
120 |
1096717 |
125 |
149 |
2143158 |
197 |
106 |
84744 |
578 |
362 |
|
2019 |
3333338 |
168 |
100 |
951460 |
108 |
87 |
2289925 |
211 |
107 |
91953 |
627 |
109 |
|
2020 |
2879817 |
145 |
86 |
544261 |
62 |
57 |
2215855 |
204 |
97 |
119700 |
816 |
130 |
|
2021 |
3684979 |
186 |
128 |
1044545 |
119 |
192 |
2426975 |
224 |
110 |
213458 |
1455 |
178 |
|
2022 |
4646532 |
235 |
126 |
1657274 |
188 |
159 |
2782268 |
256 |
115 |
206990 |
1411 |
97 |
|
2023 |
4569693 |
231 |
98 |
1293707 |
147 |
78 |
3039183 |
280 |
109 |
236804 |
1614 |
114 |
|
2024 |
4649267 |
235 |
102 |
1153802 |
131 |
89 |
3241833 |
299 |
107 |
253632 |
1729 |
107 |
|
Mean |
3216297 |
162 |
107 |
1050543 |
119 |
108 |
2073710 |
191 |
108 |
92044 |
627 |
130 |
|
CV |
|
|
0.13 |
|
|
0.36 |
|
|
0.05 |
|
|
0.52 |
|
ATGR (%) |
|
38.27 |
|
|
15.97 |
|
|
47.64 |
|
|
84.05 |
|
Table 3. ANOVA of growth trends of GDP, the oil sector, the non-oil sector, and net taxes on products of Saudi Arabia
|
H.No. |
Hypothesis |
F* |
Fα** |
Decision If F*≥ Fα**, Reject H0 |
|
H01 |
There is no significant difference among the growth trends of GDP and the components of GDP of Saudi Arabia. |
8.6263 |
2.7694 |
Reject H0 |
4.1.2 Proportional growth of institutional sectors of GDP
The proportional growth rate of components of GDP reveals the variability in the composition of GDP and explains the growth status of the components.
Table 4 explores the negativity of the oil sector's proportional growth to the GDP of Saudi Arabia. The Average Trend Growth Rate (ATGR) of the oil sector contribution to GDP is negative (-33.05%). Net taxes on products have been growing heavily since 2018, and the proportional growth rate of the net taxes on products (69.92%) is higher than the non-oil sector growth rate (14.53%). But, the growth trend of Net taxes on products is not effective in comparison to the non-oil sector, as its average absolute contribution (92044 million SAR) is lower than the average absolute contribution of the non-oil sector (2073710 million SAR) to the GDP of Saudi Arabia during the period from 2010 to 2024. The relative consistency of variability of the oil sector (CV = 0.24) and the non-oil sector (CV = 0.10) is normal, while Net taxes on products reflect abnormally positive variability (CV = 0.45) and indicate the increase in the rates of taxes and consideration of more products and services for tax levying.
Table 4. Proportional growth of the institutional sectors of GDP of Saudi Arabia
|
Years |
Oil Sector % to GDP |
FBI |
CBI |
Non-oil Sector % to GDP |
FBI |
CBI |
Net Taxes on Products % to GDP |
FBI |
CBI |
|
2010 |
44.45 |
100 |
100 |
54.81 |
100 |
100 |
0.74 |
100 |
100 |
|
2011 |
50.01 |
112.52 |
112.53 |
49.31 |
89.96 |
89.96 |
0.68 |
91.51 |
91.44 |
|
2012 |
48.83 |
109.86 |
97.64 |
50.40 |
91.96 |
102.22 |
0.76 |
103.01 |
112.57 |
|
2013 |
44.74 |
100.64 |
91.61 |
54.53 |
99.49 |
108.19 |
0.73 |
99.13 |
96.23 |
|
2014 |
40.59 |
91.31 |
90.73 |
58.62 |
106.94 |
107.49 |
0.80 |
107.68 |
108.62 |
|
2015 |
25.40 |
57.14 |
62.57 |
73.60 |
134.29 |
125.57 |
1.00 |
135.09 |
125.46 |
|
2016 |
23.07 |
51.90 |
90.83 |
75.93 |
138.53 |
103.16 |
1.00 |
135.21 |
100.09 |
|
2017 |
26.49 |
59.59 |
114.82 |
72.67 |
132.59 |
95.71 |
0.84 |
113.65 |
84.06 |
|
2018 |
32.99 |
74.21 |
124.54 |
64.46 |
117.61 |
88.71 |
2.55 |
344.46 |
303.09 |
|
2019 |
28.54 |
64.22 |
86.53 |
68.70 |
125.34 |
106.57 |
2.76 |
372.78 |
108.22 |
|
2020 |
18.90 |
42.52 |
66.21 |
76.94 |
140.38 |
112.00 |
4.16 |
561.69 |
150.68 |
|
2021 |
28.35 |
63.77 |
149.99 |
65.86 |
120.16 |
85.60 |
5.79 |
782.79 |
139.36 |
|
2022 |
35.67 |
80.24 |
125.83 |
59.88 |
109.25 |
90.92 |
4.45 |
601.99 |
76.90 |
|
2023 |
28.31 |
63.69 |
79.37 |
66.51 |
121.34 |
111.07 |
5.18 |
700.28 |
116.33 |
|
2024 |
24.82 |
55.83 |
87.66 |
69.73 |
127.22 |
104.84 |
5.46 |
737.20 |
105.27 |
|
Mean |
33.41 |
75.16 |
98.72 |
64.13 |
117.00 |
102.13 |
2.46 |
332.43 |
121.22 |
|
CV |
|
|
0.24 |
|
|
0.10 |
|
|
0.45 |
|
ATGR (%) |
|
-33.05 |
|
|
14.53 |
|
|
69.92 |
|
Table 5. ANOVA of the proportional growth trend of components of GDP (oil sector, non-oil sector, and net taxes on products) of Saudi Arabia
|
H.No. |
Hypothesis |
F* |
Fα** |
Decision If F*≥ Fα**, Reject H0 |
|
H02 |
There is no significant difference among the proportional growth trends of the components of GDP. |
11.5973 |
3.2199 |
Reject H0 |
Table 5 explains the significant difference among the proportional growth trends of the components of GDP (oil sector, non-oil sector, and net taxes on products) of Saudi Arabia. Reading Tables 2 and 3, it can be concluded that the growth trend and proportional growth trend of the non-oil sector are effective due to its higher absolute amount of contribution to the GDP. From the above analysis, it is obvious that the contribution of the non-oil sector is weighted than other contributors to the GDP of Saudi Arabia.
4.1.3 Status, growth trend, and sensitivity of non-oil GDP and its components
In the Saudi Arabian economy, the non-oil contribution is higher than the oil contribution, and the contribution is in a progressive trend.
Figure 3 explains the progressive growth of non-oil GDP and its components. The absolute amount Growth of the industry (non-oil) sector is higher than the other sectors, like agriculture, forestry, and fishing, the service industry, wholesale retail trade, restaurants and hotels, and government activities and net taxes on products.
Figure 3. Growth trend of non-oil GDP and components of non-oil GDP
4.1.4 Growth trend and abnormality of the variability of the non-oil components of GDP of Saudi Arabia
The individual components of non-oil GDP of Saudi Arabia constitute Agriculture, Forestry, and fishing; Other mining and Quarrying (other than oil); Manufacturing Excluding petroleum; Electricity, Gas, and Water; Construction; Wholesale retail trade, restaurants, and hotels; Transport, storage and communication; real estate; Finance, Insurance, and Business Services; Community Social and personal services; Government Activities; and Net Taxes on products. Average Growth Trend Rate and the coefficient of variation explain the growth pattern and consistency in variability in the variables.
Table 6. Growth trend and variability consistency of components of non-oil GDP of Saudi Arabia (2010 to 2024)
|
Non-oil GDP Components |
Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing |
Other Mining and Quarrying |
Manufacturing Excl. Petroleum |
Electricity, Gas, and Water |
Construction |
Wholesale Retail Trade, Restaurants, and Hotels |
Total Non-oil GDP |
|
CV |
0.03 |
0.04 |
0.07 |
0.05 |
0.11 |
0.07 |
0.05 |
|
ATGR (%) |
34 |
39 |
50 |
46 |
55 |
50 |
49 |
|
Non-oil GDP components |
Transport, storage and communication |
Real state |
Finance, Insurance, and Business Services |
Community Social and personal services |
Government Activities |
Net Taxes on products |
|
|
CV |
0.07 |
0.08 |
0.05 |
0.3 |
0.05 |
0.52 |
|
|
ATGR (%) |
43 |
52 |
44 |
62 |
43 |
84 |
|
There is consistency in the variability seen in all components of non-oil GDP except net taxes on products (CV = 0.52). The individual average growth rate of all non-oil components is higher than 34%. The highest average growth rate of net taxes on products, while the lowest growth is in agriculture, forestry, and fishing in Saudi Arabia. Manufacturing excluding petroleum, construction, Wholesale retail trade, restaurants, and hotels, real estate, Community, Social, and personal services, Net Taxes on products are higher than the total non-oil GDP growth rate. Agriculture, Forestry, and fishing; Other mining and Quarrying; Electricity, Gas, and Water; Transport, storage and communication; Finance, Insurance, and Business Services; and Government Activities average trend growth rate is lower than the average growth rate of non-oil GDP in Saudi Arabia. There is potential available to the non-oil components whose average growth rate is lower than the growth rate of non-oil GDP (Table 6).
Table 7. ANOVA of significant differences among the growth trends of components of non-oil GDP of Saudi Arabia (2010 to 2024)
|
H.No. |
Hypothesis |
F* |
Fα** |
Decision If F*≥ Fα**, Reject H0 |
|
H03 |
There is no significant difference in the growth trend of the components of the Non-oil GDP of Saudi Arabia. |
11.5973 |
3.2199 |
Reject H0 |
There is a significant difference in the growth trend of components of the non-oil GDP of Saudi Arabia (Table 7). The growth trend of the net taxes on products (84%), Community Social and personal services (62%), construction (55%), and real estate (52%) is higher than Agriculture, Forestry, and fishing (34%), Other mining and Quarrying (39%), Transport, storage and communication (43%), and Government Activities (43%) (Table 6).
4.1.5 Proportional growth of components of non-oil GDP
The proportional growth rate of components of non-oil GDP reveals the variability in the composition of non-oil GDP and explains the growth status of the components.
The consistency of proportional growth of all components of non-oil GDP is normal except net taxes on products (CV = 0.76). The proportional growth trend of Agriculture, Forestry and fishing (-25%); Other mining and Quarrying (-17%); Electricity, Gas and water (-15%); Transport, storage and communication (-10%); and government activities (-11%) are in negative trend while Net Taxes On products (62%); Community Social and personal services (22%); Finance, Insurance and Business Services (11%); Construction (9%); Real state (7%); and Manufacturing Excluding Petroleum (3%) is reflecting positive proportional growth (Table 8). It is essential to focus on components whose proportional growth is negative or low positive, and the potential for growth and development is available.
There is a significant difference in the growth trend of components of the Non-oil GDP of Saudi Arabia (Table 9).
Table 8. Proportional growth trend and abnormality of the variability of non-oil components of GDP of Saudi Arabia (2010-2024)
|
Non-oil GDP Components |
Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing |
Other Mining and Quarrying |
Manufacturing Excl. Petroleum |
Electricity, Gas, and Water |
Construction |
Wholesale Retail Trade, Restaurants, and Hotels |
|
CV |
0.09 |
0.08 |
0.03 |
0.07 |
0.1 |
0.05 |
|
ATGR (%) |
-25 |
-17 |
3 |
-15 |
9 |
2 |
|
Non-oil GDP components |
Transport, storage, and communication |
Real state |
Finance, Insurance, and Business Services |
Community Social and personal services |
Government Activities |
Net Taxes on products |
|
CV |
0.08 |
0.11 |
0.06 |
0.14 |
0.1 |
0.76 |
|
ATGR (%) |
-10 |
7 |
11 |
22 |
-11 |
62 |
Table 9. ANOVA of significant differences among the proportional growth trend of components of Non-oil GDP of Saudi Arabia (2010 to 2024)
|
H.No. |
Hypothesis |
F* |
Fα** |
Decision If F* ≥ Fα**, Reject H0 |
|
H04 |
There is no significant difference in the proportional growth trend of the components of the Non-oil GDP of Saudi Arabia. |
33.1836 |
1.89265 |
Reject H0 |
4.2 Status, growth trend, and sensitivity of oil GDP and its components
There are two components, crude petroleum and natural gas, and the petroleum refining of the oil GDP of Saudi Arabia.
Figure 4 explains the spiral growth of the oil GDP and its components. The absolute contribution of Crude petroleum and natural gas is higher than the petroleum refining to the oil GDP of Saudi Arabia. In recent years, a remarkable growth has been seen in the absolute amount of petroleum refining. Still, the contribution of Crude petroleum and natural gas is higher than that of petroleum refining, absolutely.
Figure 4. Oil GDP and components of oil GDP of Saudi Arabia
Table 10 explains the growth trend of the components of oil GDP and the oil GDP of Saudi Arabia. The consistency of variability of components of oil GDP (CV = 0.37 and 0.32) and oil GDP (CV = 0.36) is moderately normal. The average growth rate of the petroleum refining (45%) is higher than the Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (12%) and oil GDP (16%). The average growth rate of the Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas is effective, as the absolute average amount is eight times that of petroleum refining. So, the contribution of the oil GDP is lower to GDP due to a low average growth rate and a high absolute proportion of Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas in the non-oil GDP of Saudi Arabia.
Table 10. Status, growth trend, and sensitivity of components of oil GDP of Saudi Arabia
|
Years |
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas |
FBI |
CBI |
Petroleum Refining |
FBI |
CBI |
Total Oil GDP |
FBI |
CBI |
|
2010 |
812911 |
100 |
100 |
62694 |
100 |
100 |
875605 |
100 |
100 |
|
2011 |
1206751 |
148 |
148 |
64216 |
102 |
102 |
1270967 |
145 |
145 |
|
2012 |
1302081 |
160 |
108 |
68583 |
109 |
107 |
1370664 |
157 |
108 |
|
2013 |
1222898 |
150 |
94 |
61536 |
98 |
90 |
1284434 |
147 |
94 |
|
2014 |
1119489 |
138 |
92 |
71001 |
113 |
115 |
1190490 |
136 |
93 |
|
2015 |
589295 |
72 |
53 |
62920 |
100 |
89 |
652215 |
74 |
55 |
|
2016 |
522507 |
64 |
89 |
65333 |
104 |
104 |
587840 |
67 |
90 |
|
2017 |
643994 |
79 |
123 |
83471 |
133 |
128 |
727465 |
83 |
124 |
|
2018 |
967887 |
119 |
150 |
119340 |
190 |
143 |
1087227 |
124 |
149 |
|
2019 |
834516 |
103 |
86 |
106742 |
170 |
89 |
941258 |
107 |
87 |
|
2020 |
461895 |
57 |
55 |
72504 |
116 |
68 |
534399 |
61 |
57 |
|
2021 |
884412 |
109 |
191 |
149273 |
238 |
206 |
1033685 |
118 |
193 |
|
2022 |
1387459 |
171 |
157 |
256734 |
410 |
172 |
1644193 |
188 |
159 |
|
2023 |
1028626 |
127 |
74 |
250707 |
400 |
98 |
1279333 |
146 |
78 |
|
2024 |
908569 |
112 |
88 |
229860 |
367 |
92 |
1138429 |
130 |
89 |
|
Mean |
926219 |
114 |
107 |
114994 |
183 |
113 |
1041214 |
119 |
108 |
|
CV |
|
|
0.37 |
|
|
0.32 |
|
|
0.36 |
|
ATGR (%) |
|
12.28 |
|
|
45.36 |
|
|
15.97 |
|
4.3 Effective Weighted Average Trend Growth Rate (EWATGRi) and Proportional Effective Weighted Average Trend Growth Rate (PEWATGRi)
The EWATGR yields a comparable average trend growth rate for various components of a variable, each with an unequal absolute amount.
In the total GDP of Saudi Arabia, the EWATGR of non-oil GDP (30.72%) is higher than the oil GDP (5.22%) and net taxes on products (2.41%). The PEWATGR of non-oil GDP is 80, while the oil sector (14%) and net taxes on products (6%) are negligible due to their low growth rate and absolute low contribution of oil GDP and net taxes on products to the GDP (Table 11).
Table 11. Effective Weighted Average Trend Growth Rate (EWAGRi) of components of GDP (2010 to 2024)
|
Components of GDP |
Oil GDP |
Non-oil GDP |
Net Taxes on Products |
Total GDP |
|
ATGRi |
15.97 |
47.64 |
84.05 |
38.27 |
|
Proportional Contributioni |
0.3266 |
0.6448 |
0.02862 |
1 |
|
EWAGRi (%) |
5.22 |
30.72 |
2.41 |
38.27 |
|
PEWAGRi (%) |
14 |
80 |
6 |
100 |
Table 12. Effective weighted average Trend growth rate (EWAGRi) of components of oil GDP (2010 to 2024)
|
Components of Oil GDP |
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas |
Petroleum Refining |
Total Oil GDP |
|
ATGRi |
12.28 |
45.35 |
15.97 |
|
Proportional Contributioni |
0.8896 |
0.1104 |
1.00 |
|
EWAGRi (%) |
10.92 |
5.01 |
15.97 |
|
PEWAGRi (%) |
68 |
32 |
100 |
Table 13. Effective weighted average Trend growth rate (EWAGRi) of components of non-oil GDP (2010 to 2024)
|
Non-oil Components of GDP Components |
Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing |
Other Mining and Quarrying |
Manufacturing Excl. Petroleum |
Electricity, Gas, and Water |
Construction |
Wholesale Retail Trade, Restaurants, and Hotels |
Total Non-oil GDP |
|
ATGRi |
34 |
39 |
50 |
46 |
55 |
50 |
49 |
|
Proportional Contributioni |
0.0365 |
0.0061 |
0.141 |
0.022 |
0.09 |
0.153 |
1 |
|
EWAGRi |
1.24 |
0.24 |
7.07 |
0.998 |
4.93 |
7.68 |
49 |
|
PEWAGRi (%) |
3 |
0.5 |
14 |
2 |
10 |
15.5 |
100 |
|
Non-oil GDP components |
Transport, storage, and communication |
Real state |
Finance, Insurance, and Business Services |
Community Social and personal services |
Government Activities |
Net Taxes on products |
|
|
ATGRi |
43 |
52 |
44 |
62 |
43 |
84 |
|
|
Proportional Contributioni |
0.081 |
0.084 |
0.08 |
0.044 |
0.225 |
0.0423 |
|
|
EWAGRi |
3.462 |
4.348 |
3.373 |
2.706 |
9.654 |
3.555 |
|
|
PEWAGRi (%) |
7 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
20 |
7 |
|
In the oil GDP of Saudi Arabia, the EWATGR of crude petroleum and natural gas (10.92%) is higher than that of petroleum refining (5.01%) due to its absolute proportional contribution. The average growth rate of petroleum refining is more than three times higher than that of crude petroleum and natural gas. The PEWATGR of crude petroleum and natural gas (68) is more than petroleum refining (32%) due to only a low absolute contribution to oil GDP (Table 12).
In the oil GDP of Saudi Arabia, the EWATGR of government activities (9.654%), Wholesale retail trade, restaurants, and hotels (7.68%), Manufacturing Excluding Petroleum (7.07%), is higher than the other mining and Quarrying (0.24%). Agriculture, Forestry, and fishing (1.24%), Electricity, Gas, and Water (0.998%), and other components of non-oil GDP. The PEWATGR of government activities (9.654%), Wholesale retail trade, restaurants, and hotels (7.68%), Manufacturing Excluding Petroleum (7.07%) is higher than other components of non-oil GDP due to its higher proportional contribution. The Average trend growth rate of the net taxes on products is the highest, but the EWATGR and PEWATGR are lower due to their low proportional contribution to the non-oil GDP of Saudi Arabia (Table 13).
Growth trends and proportional growth trends of components of Saudi Arabian GDP, i.e. oil sector, the non-oil Sector, and taxes on products, are significantly different (Tables 3 and 5). The PEWATGR of the non-oil sector is higher than the oil sector growth rate due to its higher ATGR and proportional contribution in the Saudi Arabian economy. This refers that the non-oil sector is contributing four-fifths (80%) to the Saudi Arabian GDP from 2010 to 2024 (Table 11). The contribution of the oil sector to the GDP is expected to increase to enhance the economy of Saudi Arabia. While the contribution of refining oil products is only one-third of the oil GDP, as the PEWATGR is 32% (Table 12). To enhance the contribution of the oil sector to the economy, the level of refining petroleum products should be increased, as the crude petroleum oil reserves are depleting. The average trend growth rate of petroleum refining is higher, but the proportional contribution is very low compared to Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas. To increase the absolute proportional contribution of petroleum refining, the establishment of new petroleum refineries is necessary. Growth trends and proportional growth trends of components of non-oil GDP of Saudi Arabia are significantly different (Tables 7 and 9). In non-oil GDP, PEWAGR of the Government Activities (20%); Wholesale retail trade, restaurants, and hotels (15.5%); Manufacturing Excluding Petroleum (14%) is higher than the other components due to high ATGR and an absolute high contribution to the non-oil GDP. The ATGR of the net taxes on products is very high, while the EWAGR and PEWAGR are lower due to their low proportional contribution to the non-oil GDP. Ultimately, in the Saudi Arabian GDP, the contribution of the non-oil sector is higher than the oil sector contribution and other components. In Non-oil GDP, the contribution of Government Activities, Wholesale and retail trade, restaurants, and hotels, Manufacturing Excluding Petroleum is higher than other components of non-oil GDP. Agriculture, Forestry, and fishing; Other mining and Quarrying; Electricity, Gas, and Water contribute to the non-oil GDP negligibly.
It can be concluded that the growth trend of the non-oil sector is higher than the oil sector components of GDP of Saudi Arabia. The proportionate contribution and average growth trend rate jointly explain the weighted or proportionate effective growth rate of the non-oil sector, which four-fifths of the total GDP of Saudi Arabia. The average contribution of the non-oil sector is two times that of the oil sector from 2010 to 2024. The lower contribution of the oil sector is due to the low proportion of petroleum refining to the oil GDP. To enhance the contribution of the oil sector to the non-oil sector, it is necessary to enhance the refined oil production, as its contribution is negligible to the oil GDP. Wholesale retail trade, restaurants, and hotels; Government Activities; Manufacturing excluding Petroleum; and Construction are the major contributors to the non-oil GDP of Saudi Arabia. Also, there is a need to focus on Agriculture, Forestry, and fishing; Other mining and Quarrying; Electricity, Gas, and Water to enhance the absolute proportional contribution for non-oil GDP to shift the oil economy to a non-oil economy. The Saudi Arabian government, the Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture, and the Ministry of Energy of Saudi Arabia have to focus on developing new policies and strategies to enhance the proportional contribution of non-oil to Saudi Arabia's GDP. The Saudi government may apply lower rates of taxes on the goods and services identified as zero-rated, to enhance the proportional contribution of the net taxes on products.
The author extends his appreciation to Prince Sattam bin Abdulaziz University for funding this research work through the project number (PSAU/2025/02/35257).
The author is grateful to the Deanship of Scientific Research, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, Alkharj, Saudi Arabia, for providing funding to complete this project (Project No.: 2025/02/35257).
Appendix 1. Non-oil GDP components of Saudi Arabia
|
Years |
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing* |
Other Mining and Quarrying * |
Manufacturing Excl. Petroleum* |
Electricity, Gas and Water* |
Construction * |
Whole sale Retail Trade, Restaurants and Hotels* |
Transport, Storage and Communication* |
Real State* |
Finance, Insurance and Business Services* |
Community Social and Personal Services* |
Government Activities* |
Net Taxes On Products* |
Total Non-oil GDP* |
|
2010 |
51878 |
8079 |
151792 |
25494 |
88504 |
167096 |
99446 |
87440 |
93601 |
36309 |
280863 |
14669 |
1105171 |
|
2011 |
54953 |
8958 |
189405 |
29956 |
110827 |
202853 |
116434 |
96708 |
97731 |
44093 |
312308 |
17285 |
1281511 |
|
2012 |
58144 |
9726 |
206478 |
33059 |
126680 |
231505 |
128525 |
124328 |
109435 |
50018 |
349649 |
21494 |
1449041 |
|
2013 |
61998 |
10527 |
227834 |
35099 |
144331 |
262652 |
139734 |
153409 |
120556 |
56765 |
368070 |
21174 |
1602149 |
|
2014 |
67284 |
11357 |
253422 |
37101 |
165531 |
295769 |
150635 |
168625 |
129824 |
66637 |
391626 |
23520 |
1761331 |
|
2015 |
71609 |
12209 |
277649 |
41084 |
176611 |
313742 |
161111 |
181277 |
136188 |
75549 |
475067 |
25995 |
1948091 |
|
2016 |
75424 |
11813 |
284483 |
43802 |
171392 |
312143 |
168003 |
189573 |
141820 |
85128 |
487515 |
25862 |
1996958 |
|
2017 |
78813 |
12627 |
289592 |
46952 |
171192 |
321478 |
178227 |
199333 |
148318 |
91295 |
491077 |
23378 |
2052282 |
|
2018 |
80256 |
13247 |
300282 |
53303 |
175494 |
329764 |
182635 |
199747 |
160072 |
98912 |
558938 |
84744 |
2237394 |
|
2019 |
81795 |
14775 |
322230 |
55934 |
189921 |
362943 |
198082 |
203914 |
178537 |
108701 |
583295 |
91953 |
2392080 |
|
2020 |
85116 |
15241 |
312993 |
55138 |
185211 |
332051 |
170169 |
203416 |
179273 |
110625 |
576484 |
119700 |
2345417 |
|
2021 |
90214 |
16261 |
371761 |
57741 |
214071 |
389104 |
192691 |
207549 |
197669 |
123680 |
577095 |
213458 |
2651294 |
|
2022 |
102912 |
16929 |
445616 |
61346 |
300330 |
445141 |
225972 |
213107 |
239283 |
142142 |
602572 |
206990 |
3002340 |
|
2023 |
112308 |
18501 |
475493 |
63815 |
338275 |
501614 |
250234 |
235731 |
272878 |
162934 |
621772 |
236804 |
3290359 |
|
2024 |
117893 |
19455 |
501094 |
68366 |
361777 |
544202 |
264583 |
264126 |
295793 |
171265 |
648652 |
253632 |
3510838 |
|
Mean |
79373 |
13314 |
307342 |
47213 |
194676 |
334137 |
175099 |
181886 |
166732 |
94937 |
488332 |
92044 |
2175084 |
Appendix 2. Trend and sensitivity of non-oil components of GDP of Saudi Arabia (Continued)
|
Years |
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing |
Other mining and Quarrying |
Manufacturing Excl. Petroleum |
Electricity, Gas and Water |
Construction |
Whole Sale Retail Trade, Restaurants and Hotels |
Transport, Storage and Communication |
|||||||
|
FBI |
CBI |
FBI |
CBI |
FBI |
CBI |
FBI |
CBI |
FBI |
CBI |
FBI |
CBI |
FBI |
CBI |
|
|
2010 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
|
2011 |
106 |
106 |
111 |
111 |
125 |
125 |
118 |
118 |
125 |
125 |
121 |
121 |
117 |
117 |
|
2012 |
112 |
106 |
120 |
109 |
136 |
109 |
130 |
110 |
143 |
114 |
139 |
114 |
129 |
110 |
|
2013 |
120 |
107 |
130 |
108 |
150 |
110 |
138 |
106 |
163 |
114 |
157 |
113 |
141 |
109 |
|
2014 |
130 |
109 |
141 |
108 |
167 |
111 |
146 |
106 |
187 |
115 |
177 |
113 |
151 |
108 |
|
2015 |
138 |
106 |
151 |
108 |
183 |
110 |
161 |
111 |
200 |
107 |
188 |
106 |
162 |
107 |
|
2016 |
145 |
105 |
146 |
97 |
187 |
102 |
172 |
107 |
194 |
97 |
187 |
99 |
169 |
104 |
|
2017 |
152 |
104 |
156 |
107 |
191 |
102 |
184 |
107 |
193 |
100 |
192 |
103 |
179 |
106 |
|
2018 |
155 |
102 |
164 |
105 |
198 |
104 |
209 |
114 |
198 |
103 |
197 |
103 |
184 |
102 |
|
2019 |
158 |
102 |
183 |
112 |
212 |
107 |
219 |
105 |
215 |
108 |
217 |
110 |
199 |
108 |
|
2020 |
164 |
104 |
189 |
103 |
206 |
97 |
216 |
99 |
209 |
98 |
199 |
91 |
171 |
86 |
|
2021 |
174 |
106 |
201 |
107 |
245 |
119 |
226 |
105 |
242 |
116 |
233 |
117 |
194 |
113 |
|
2022 |
198 |
114 |
210 |
104 |
294 |
120 |
241 |
106 |
339 |
140 |
266 |
114 |
227 |
117 |
|
2023 |
216 |
109 |
229 |
109 |
313 |
107 |
250 |
104 |
382 |
113 |
300 |
113 |
252 |
111 |
|
2024 |
227 |
105 |
241 |
105 |
330 |
105 |
268 |
107 |
409 |
107 |
326 |
108 |
266 |
106 |
|
Mean |
153 |
106 |
165 |
106 |
202 |
109 |
185 |
107 |
220 |
110 |
200 |
108 |
176 |
107 |
Appendix 2. (Continued) Trend and sensitivity of non-oil components of GDP of Saudi Arabia
|
Years |
Real State |
Finance, Insurance and Business Services |
Community Social and Personal Services |
Government Activities |
Net Taxes On products |
Total Non-oil GDP |
||||||
|
FBI |
CBI |
FBI |
CBI |
FBI |
CBI |
FBI |
CBI |
FBI |
CBI |
FBI |
CBI |
|
|
2010 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
|
2011 |
111 |
111 |
104 |
104 |
121 |
121 |
111 |
111 |
118 |
118 |
116 |
116 |
|
2012 |
142 |
129 |
117 |
112 |
138 |
113 |
124 |
112 |
147 |
124 |
131 |
113 |
|
2013 |
175 |
123 |
129 |
110 |
156 |
113 |
131 |
105 |
144 |
99 |
145 |
111 |
|
2014 |
193 |
110 |
139 |
108 |
184 |
117 |
139 |
106 |
160 |
111 |
159 |
110 |
|
2015 |
207 |
108 |
145 |
105 |
208 |
113 |
169 |
121 |
177 |
111 |
176 |
111 |
|
2016 |
217 |
105 |
152 |
104 |
234 |
113 |
174 |
103 |
176 |
99 |
181 |
103 |
|
2017 |
228 |
105 |
158 |
105 |
251 |
107 |
175 |
101 |
159 |
90 |
186 |
103 |
|
2018 |
228 |
100 |
171 |
108 |
272 |
108 |
199 |
114 |
578 |
362 |
202 |
109 |
|
2019 |
233 |
102 |
191 |
112 |
299 |
110 |
208 |
104 |
627 |
109 |
216 |
107 |
|
2020 |
233 |
100 |
192 |
100 |
305 |
102 |
205 |
99 |
816 |
130 |
212 |
98 |
|
2021 |
237 |
102 |
211 |
110 |
341 |
112 |
205 |
100 |
1455 |
178 |
240 |
113 |
|
2022 |
244 |
103 |
256 |
121 |
391 |
115 |
215 |
104 |
1411 |
97 |
272 |
113 |
|
2023 |
270 |
111 |
292 |
114 |
449 |
115 |
221 |
103 |
1614 |
114 |
298 |
110 |
|
2024 |
302 |
112 |
316 |
108 |
472 |
105 |
231 |
104 |
1729 |
107 |
318 |
107 |
|
Mean |
208 |
108 |
178 |
108 |
261 |
111 |
174 |
106 |
627 |
130 |
197 |
108 |
Appendix 3. Proportional status of components of non-oil components of Saudi Arabia
|
Years |
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing |
Other Mining and Quarrying |
Manufacturing Excl. Petroleum |
Electricity, Gas and Water |
Construction |
Whole Sale Retail Trade, Restaurants and Hotels |
Transport, Storage and Communication |
Real State |
Finance, Insurance and Business Services |
Community Social and personal Services |
Government Activities |
Net Taxes On Products |
|
2010 |
4.69 |
0.73 |
13.73 |
2.31 |
8.01 |
15.12 |
9.00 |
7.91 |
8.47 |
3.29 |
25.41 |
1.33 |
|
2011 |
4.29 |
0.70 |
14.78 |
2.34 |
8.65 |
15.83 |
9.09 |
7.55 |
7.63 |
3.44 |
24.37 |
1.35 |
|
2012 |
4.01 |
0.67 |
14.25 |
2.28 |
8.74 |
15.98 |
8.87 |
8.58 |
7.55 |
3.45 |
24.13 |
1.48 |
|
2013 |
3.87 |
0.66 |
14.22 |
2.19 |
9.01 |
16.39 |
8.72 |
9.58 |
7.52 |
3.54 |
22.97 |
1.32 |
|
2014 |
3.82 |
0.64 |
14.39 |
2.11 |
9.40 |
16.79 |
8.55 |
9.57 |
7.37 |
3.78 |
22.23 |
1.34 |
|
2015 |
3.68 |
0.63 |
14.25 |
2.11 |
9.07 |
16.11 |
8.27 |
9.31 |
6.99 |
3.88 |
24.39 |
1.33 |
|
2016 |
3.78 |
0.59 |
14.25 |
2.19 |
8.58 |
15.63 |
8.41 |
9.49 |
7.10 |
4.26 |
24.41 |
1.30 |
|
2017 |
3.84 |
0.62 |
14.11 |
2.29 |
8.34 |
15.66 |
8.68 |
9.71 |
7.23 |
4.45 |
23.93 |
1.14 |
|
2018 |
3.59 |
0.59 |
13.42 |
2.38 |
7.84 |
14.74 |
8.16 |
8.93 |
7.15 |
4.42 |
24.98 |
3.79 |
|
2019 |
3.42 |
0.62 |
13.47 |
2.34 |
7.94 |
15.17 |
8.28 |
8.52 |
7.46 |
4.54 |
24.38 |
3.84 |
|
2020 |
3.63 |
0.65 |
13.34 |
2.35 |
7.90 |
14.16 |
7.26 |
8.67 |
7.64 |
4.72 |
24.58 |
5.10 |
|
2021 |
3.40 |
0.61 |
14.02 |
2.18 |
8.07 |
14.68 |
7.27 |
7.83 |
7.46 |
4.66 |
21.77 |
8.05 |
|
2022 |
3.43 |
0.56 |
14.84 |
2.04 |
10.00 |
14.83 |
7.53 |
7.10 |
7.97 |
4.73 |
20.07 |
6.89 |
|
2023 |
3.41 |
0.56 |
14.45 |
1.94 |
10.28 |
15.24 |
7.61 |
7.16 |
8.29 |
4.95 |
18.90 |
7.20 |
|
2024 |
3.36 |
0.55 |
14.27 |
1.95 |
10.30 |
15.50 |
7.54 |
7.52 |
8.43 |
4.88 |
18.48 |
7.22 |
|
Mean |
3.75 |
0.63 |
14.12 |
2.20 |
8.81 |
15.46 |
8.22 |
8.50 |
7.62 |
4.20 |
23.00 |
3.51 |
Appendix 4. Growth trend of the proportional components of non-oil of Saudi Arabia
|
Years |
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing |
Other Mining and Quarrying |
Manufacturing Excl. Petroleum |
Electricity, Gas and Water |
Construction |
Whole Sale Retail Trade, Restaurants and Hotels |
Transport, Storage and Communication |
Real state |
Finance, Insurance and Business Services |
Community Social and personal Services |
Government Activities |
Net Taxes On Products |
|
2010 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
|
2011 |
91 |
96 |
108 |
101 |
108 |
105 |
101 |
95 |
90 |
105 |
96 |
102 |
|
2012 |
85 |
92 |
104 |
99 |
109 |
106 |
99 |
108 |
89 |
105 |
95 |
112 |
|
2013 |
82 |
90 |
104 |
95 |
112 |
108 |
97 |
121 |
89 |
108 |
90 |
100 |
|
2014 |
81 |
88 |
105 |
91 |
117 |
111 |
95 |
121 |
87 |
115 |
87 |
101 |
|
2015 |
78 |
86 |
104 |
91 |
113 |
107 |
92 |
118 |
83 |
118 |
96 |
101 |
|
2016 |
80 |
81 |
104 |
95 |
107 |
103 |
93 |
120 |
84 |
130 |
96 |
98 |
|
2017 |
82 |
84 |
103 |
99 |
104 |
104 |
97 |
123 |
85 |
135 |
94 |
86 |
|
2018 |
76 |
81 |
98 |
103 |
98 |
97 |
91 |
113 |
84 |
135 |
98 |
285 |
|
2019 |
73 |
84 |
98 |
101 |
99 |
100 |
92 |
108 |
88 |
138 |
96 |
290 |
|
2020 |
77 |
89 |
97 |
102 |
99 |
94 |
81 |
110 |
90 |
144 |
97 |
385 |
|
2021 |
72 |
84 |
102 |
94 |
101 |
97 |
81 |
99 |
88 |
142 |
86 |
607 |
|
2022 |
73 |
77 |
108 |
89 |
125 |
98 |
84 |
90 |
94 |
144 |
79 |
520 |
|
2023 |
73 |
77 |
105 |
84 |
128 |
101 |
85 |
91 |
98 |
151 |
74 |
542 |
|
2024 |
72 |
76 |
104 |
84 |
129 |
103 |
84 |
95 |
99 |
148 |
73 |
544 |
|
Mean |
80 |
86 |
103 |
95 |
110 |
102 |
91 |
107 |
90 |
128 |
91 |
265 |
|
CV |
0.09 |
0.08 |
0.03 |
0.07 |
0.10 |
0.05 |
0.08 |
0.11 |
0.06 |
0.14 |
0.10 |
0.76 |
|
ATGR (%) |
-25 |
-17 |
3 |
-15 |
9 |
2 |
-10 |
7 |
11 |
22 |
-11 |
62 |
Appendix 5. Sensitivity of the proportional components of non-oil of Saudi Arabia
|
Years |
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing |
Other Mining and Quarrying |
Manufacturing Excl. Petroleum |
Electricity, Gas and Water |
Construction |
Whole Sale Retail Trade, Restaurants and Hotels |
Transport, Storage and Communication |
Real State |
Finance, Insurance and Business Services |
Community Social and Personal Services |
Government Activities |
Net Taxes On Products |
|
2010 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
|
2011 |
91 |
96 |
108 |
101 |
108 |
105 |
101 |
95 |
90 |
105 |
96 |
102 |
|
2012 |
94 |
96 |
96 |
98 |
101 |
101 |
98 |
114 |
99 |
100 |
99 |
110 |
|
2013 |
96 |
98 |
100 |
96 |
103 |
103 |
98 |
112 |
100 |
103 |
95 |
89 |
|
2014 |
99 |
98 |
101 |
96 |
104 |
102 |
98 |
100 |
98 |
107 |
97 |
101 |
|
2015 |
96 |
97 |
99 |
100 |
96 |
96 |
97 |
97 |
95 |
103 |
110 |
100 |
|
2016 |
103 |
94 |
100 |
104 |
95 |
97 |
102 |
102 |
102 |
110 |
100 |
97 |
|
2017 |
102 |
104 |
99 |
104 |
97 |
100 |
103 |
102 |
102 |
104 |
98 |
88 |
|
2018 |
93 |
96 |
95 |
104 |
94 |
94 |
94 |
92 |
99 |
99 |
104 |
333 |
|
2019 |
95 |
104 |
100 |
98 |
101 |
103 |
101 |
95 |
104 |
103 |
98 |
101 |
|
2020 |
106 |
105 |
99 |
101 |
99 |
93 |
88 |
102 |
102 |
104 |
101 |
133 |
|
2021 |
94 |
94 |
105 |
93 |
102 |
104 |
100 |
90 |
98 |
99 |
89 |
158 |
|
2022 |
101 |
92 |
106 |
94 |
124 |
101 |
104 |
91 |
107 |
101 |
92 |
86 |
|
2023 |
100 |
100 |
97 |
95 |
103 |
103 |
101 |
101 |
104 |
105 |
94 |
104 |
|
2024 |
98 |
99 |
99 |
100 |
100 |
102 |
99 |
105 |
102 |
99 |
98 |
100 |
|
Mean |
98 |
98 |
100 |
99 |
102 |
100 |
99 |
100 |
100 |
103 |
98 |
120 |
|
CV |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.03 |
0.04 |
0.07 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.07 |
0.04 |
0.03 |
0.05 |
0.51 |
|
ATGR (%) |
10.71 |
11.50 |
-1 |
12 |
18 |
0 |
8 |
12 |
11 |
16 |
19 |
17 |
[1] Alabdulwahab, S. (2021). The linkage between oil and non-oil GDP in Saudi Arabia. Economies, 9(4): 202. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies9040202
[2] Aljebrin, M.A. (2017). Impact of non-oil export on non-oil economic growth in Saudi Arabia. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(3): 389-397.
[3] Aljebrin, M.A. (2020). Do non-oil exports facilitate economic growth in Saudi Arabia? Journal of Management Information and Decision Sciences, 23(S1): 450-476.
[4] Khayat, S.H. (2024). The impact of non-oil exports on the economic growth in Saudi Arabia: An empirical analysis. International Business Research, 17(3): 89-100. https://doi.org/10.5539/ibr.v17n3p89
[5] Abdulrahman, B.M.A. (2021). Oil and non-oil export and its impact on economic performance in Saudi Arabia. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 11(1): 88-92. https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/10311.
[6] Hasanov, F.J., Javid, M., Joutz, F.L. (2022). Saudi non-oil exports before and after COVID-19: Historical impacts of determinants and scenario analysis. Sustainability, 14(4): 2379. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14042379
[7] Mohsen, A.S. (2015). Effects of oil and non-oil exports on the economic growth of Syria. Academic Journal of Economic Studies, 1(2): 69-78.
[8] Al Rasasi, M.H., Qualls, J.H., Alghamdi, B.K. (2019). Oil revenues and economic growth in Saudi Arabia. International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, 5(3): 49-55. https://ideas.repec.org/a/arp/ijefrr/2019p49-55.html.
[9] Raid, M., Ahmad, N., Bagadeem, S.A., Alzyadat, J., Alhawal, H. (2024). The non-oil institutional sectors and economic growth in Saudi Arabia. Cogent Economics & Finance, 12(1): 2300819. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2300819
[10] Hasanov, F.J., Alkathiri, N., Alshahrani, S.A., Alyamani, R. (2022). The impact of fiscal policy on non-oil GDP in Saudi Arabia. Applied Economics, 54(7): 793-806. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2021.1966370
[11] Hemrit, W., Benlagha, N. (2018). The impact of government spending on non-oil-GDP in Saudi Arabia (multiplier analysis). International Journal of Economics and Business Research, 15(3): 350-372. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJEBR.2018.091050
[12] Nurunnabi, M. (2017). Transformation from an oil-based economy to a knowledge-based economy in Saudi Arabia: The direction of Saudi vision 2030. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 8: 536-564. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-017-0479-8
[13] Llanos-Antczak, A. (2023). Perspectives of shifting from oil-based economy to knowledge-based economy in Saudi Arabia. Journal for Perspectives of Economic Political and Social Integration, 28(2): 7-40. https://doi.org/10.18290/pepsi-2022-0006
[14] Al Naimi, S.M. (2022). Economic diversification trends in the Gulf: The case of Saudi Arabia. Circular Economy and Sustainability, 2: 221-230. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43615-021-00106-0
[15] Guendouz, A.A., Ouassaf, S.M. (2020). The economic diversification in Saudi Arabia under the strategic vision 2030. Academy of Accounting and Financial Studies Journal, 24(5): 1-23.
[16] Sultan, Z.A., Haque, M.I. (2018). Oil exports and economic growth: An empirical evidence from Saudi Arabia. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 8(5): 281-287. https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/6688.
[17] Hasanov, F.J., Razek, N. (2023). Oil and non-oil determinants of Saudi Arabia’s international competitiveness: Historical analysis and policy simulations. Sustainability, 15(11): 9011. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15119011
[18] Alodadi, A., Benhin, J. (2015). Long term economic growth in oil-rich Saudi Arabia: What is the role for non-oil sectors? Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, 20(1): 109-130.
[19] Shili, N., Panjwani, K. (2020). Non-oil revenue impact on economic growth: Empirical study of Saudi Arabia’s economy. Business and Economic Research, 10(4): 13-25. https://doi.org/10.5296/ber.v10i4.17587
[20] Medhioub, I. (2016). Foreign direct investment and oil/non-oil economic growth in GCC countries. Middle East Journal of Management, 3(4): 294-308. https://doi.org/10.1504/MEJM.2016.081085
[21] Euchi, J., Omri, A., Al-Tit, A. (2018). The pillars of economic diversification in Saudi Arabia. World Review of Science, Technology and Sustainable Development, 14(4): 330-343. https://doi.org/10.1504/WRSTSD.2018.095719
[22] Alam, F., Singh, H.P., Singh, A. (2022). Economic growth in Saudi Arabia through sectoral reallocation of government expenditures. Sage Open, 12(4). https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440221127158
[23] Al-Roubaie, A., Al Mubarak, M.M.S. (2021). Contribution of entrepreneurship to economic diversification in the Arab world. International Journal of Electronic Banking, 3(1): 12-26. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJEBANK.2021.117367
[24] Samman, H., Shahnawaz, S. (2016). Diversification of the Saudi economy: Challenges and prospects. In Economic Diversification Policies in Natural Resource Rich Economies, pp. 37-58. https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781315660981-3/diversification-saudi-economy-hatem-samman-sheikh-shahnawaz.
[25] Jolo, A.M., Ari, I., Koç, M. (2022). Driving factors of economic diversification in resource-rich countries via panel data evidence. Sustainability, 14(5): 2797. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14052797
[26] Houfi, M.A. (2021). Is the impact of the economic diversification on economic growth symmetric or asymmetric? Evidence from Saudi Arabia. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 13(10): 1-11. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v13n10p1
[27] Naseem, S. (2021). The role of tourism in economic growth: Empirical evidence from Saudi Arabia. Economies, 9(3): 117. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies9030117
[28] Banafea, W., Ibnrubbian, A. (2018). Assessment of economic diversification in Saudi Arabia through nine development plans. OPEC Energy Review, 42(1): 42-54. https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12116
[29] Jawadi, F., Ftiti, Z. (2019). Oil price collapse and challenges to economic transformation of Saudi Arabia: A time-series analysis. Energy Economics, 80: 12-19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.12.003
[30] Ahmed, A.Z.E. (2015). The role of diversification strategies in the economic development for oil-depended countries: - The case of UAE. International Journal of Business and Economic Development (IJBED), 3(1): 47-57.
[31] Ali, A., Fatima, N., Ali, B.J.A.R., Husain, F. (2023). Imports, exports and growth of gross domestic product (GDP)-A relational variability analysis. International Journal of Sustainable Development & Planning, 18(6): 1681-1690. https://doi.org/10.18280/ijsdp.180604