Towards Zero CO2-, NOX- AND PM10- Emissions by Passenger Cars: Technology & Behaviour
OPEN ACCESS
Modern societies rely on mass mobility, in particular by private car. Car numbers are growing worldwide due to economic and other factors. Nearly, all have engines that run on fossil fuels. Use of fossil fuels contributes to climate change (via CO2-emissions) and local air pollution (primary NOx- and PM10-emissions). Both have profound environmental and health implications. The paper explores the technical and behavioural feasibility of zero-emission private car use in The Netherlands in 2030. Base year is 2010. The following research questions are addressed:
1. How much CO2, NOx and PM10 did passenger cars emit in 2010?
2. How much will this be in 2030?
3. What would these figures be if electric cars become mainstream in 2030?
4. What would the impact be of sustained urbanization on these emissions?
5. How would a greener power mix in electric power plants affect the emissions of CO2, NOx and PM10 by electric cars?
A simulation model was used to quantify a rich set of scenarios. Many car manufacturers aim to produce more (fully) electric vehicles (FEVs) in the coming years. More FEV translates into less (growth in) consumption of fossil fuels and emissions. The remaining emissions are still on the high side. Urbanization may support a further reduction. It reduces car ownership and use and thereby the growth in car kilometres, fossil fuel consumption and emissions. Growing production of renewable energy gradually makes the power mix greener. The most extreme combination of scenarios enables society to reduce CO2-emissions far beyond the −50% target in 2030 for the assumed car mobility scenario.
The feasibility of this outcome is rather uncertain. An extension of decades of neoliberal, market-first transport policy would very likely slow down the pace of the transition.
air pollution, behaviour, car technology, car use, climate change, simulation, 2030
[1] IPCC, Understanding and attributing climate change, www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessmentreport/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter9.pdf, 2007.
[2] IIASA, Energy End-Use: Transport, www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/Flagship-Projects/Global-Energy-Assessment/GEA_Chapter9.pdf.
[3] Where the energy goes: Gasoline vehicles, www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml.
[4] IPCC, Climate change 2014, Mitigation of climate change, Working Group III Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, USA, 2014.
[5] C hu, J., Air pollution causes 200,000 early deaths each year in the U.S., MIT News Office. Rossman, R.E., 2009, The effect of vehicular emissions on human health, teachers. yale.edu/curriculum/viewer/initiative_08.07.09_u, 2013.
[6] National Park Service, Ecological Effects of Air Pollution, www.nature.nps.gov/air/AQBasics/ecologic.cfm.
[7] U S EPA, Air quality and climate change research, www.epa.gov/air-research/air-quality-and-climate-change-research.
[8] E.g., Dieselnet, EU: Cars and light trucks, www.dieselnet.com/standards/eu/ld.php.
[9] Sims R., R. Schaeffer, F. Creutzig, X. Cruz-Núñez et al., Transport. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2014.
[10] V leugel, J., & Bal, F., The impact of a CO2 reduction target on the private car fleet in The Netherlands, WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, vol. 215, WIT Press: Southampton and Boston, pp. 109–120, 2018.
[11] CL O, Bevolkingsdichtheid Nederland, www.clo.nl/indicatoren/nl210101-bevolkingsdichtheid-nederland, 11-08-2010., 11-08-2010.
[12] CB S, www.statista.com/statistics/263749/total-population-of-the-netherlands/.opendata.cbs.nl/#/CBS/en/dataset/82044ENG/table?ts=1517220682507. Waard, J. van der, Jorritsma, P. & Immers, B., New drivers in mobility; What moves the Dutch in 2012 and beyond, discussion paper presented at OECD International Transport Forum, October 2012.
[13] CB S, StatLine: Verkeersprestaties motorvoertuigen; kilometers, voertuigsoort, grondgebied Den Haag/Heerlen, 2016.
[14] Ewalds, D. & Kampert, A., Electrische personenauto’s van particulieren, CBS, The Hague/Heerlen, 23 Nov. 2017.
[15] V leugel, J.M. & Bal, F., Electric cars as buffers in an electricity network? WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, vol. 203, WIT Press: Southampton and Boston, pp. 1–12, 2016.
[16] B urton, M., The decoupling debate: can economic growth really continue without emission increases? www.degrowth.info/en/2015/10/the-decoupling-debate-can-economicgrowth-really-continue-without-emission-increases/, 12-10-2015.
[17] CB S, PBL, RIVM, WUR, CO2-emissie per voertuigkilometer van nieuwe personenauto’s, 1998-2016 (indicator 0134, version 14, 28 April 2017), The Hague, Bilthoven, Wageningen, 2017.
[18] Mol, J. de, Allaert, G. & Vlassenroot, S., Autoconstructeurs moeten dringend op diet: Stijgend gewicht auto’s nefast voor verbruik en emissies, hdl.handle.net/1854/LU-333852, 2006.
[19] NOS, Nederlands wagenpark wordt steeds bejaarder, nos.nl/artikel/2106283-nederlands-wagenpark-steeds-bejaarder.html?, 21 May 2016. CBS, Verkoop nieuwe personenauto’s loopt terug, www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/nieuws/2016/41/verkoop-nieuwe-personenauto-s-loopt-terug, 2016.
[20] U nited Nations, The Paris Agreement, unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php.
[21] Rice, D., Global temperatures could pass limit set by Paris Climate deal within 5 years, www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2018/02/01/global-temperatures-could-pass-limitset-paris-climate-deal-within-5-years/1087326001, 1 Feb. 2018.
[22] What you need to know about the Paris agreement, www.climaterealityproject.org/sites/climaterealityproject.org/files/Paris_Agreement_Toolkit-Edit.pdf.
[23] RIVM, Nationale broeikasgassen volgens IPCC, www.emissieregistratie.nl/erpubliek/erpub/international/broeikasgassen.aspx, Bilthoven, 2017.
[24] Smith, N., Encyclopedia Britannica, Neoliberalism, www.britannica.com/topic/neoliberalism.
[25] CB S Statline, Kosten en financiering; natuur- en landschapsbeheer, retrieved 31-01-2018. Between 2000 and 2015 gross costs (expenditures) fluctuated around 915 million Euros. This equals a nett reduction after inflation.
[26] Wilmink, I., 80 kilometer zones and dynamic speed limits in the Netherlands, TNO, www.polisnetwork.eu/uploads/Modules/PublicDocuments/80 Km...
[27] RIVM, Luchtkwaliteit, www.rivm.nl/Onderwerpen/F/Fijn_stof/Luchtkwaliteit, Bilthoven, 2013.
[28] PBL, Parijs-akkoord betekent halvering Nederlandse CO2 uitstoot in 2030, The Hague, 2016.
[29] Duurzaamheidsoverleg Politieke Partijen (Dopp), Duurzaam is de toekomst, legacy.gscdn.nl/archives/images/Dopp-Def170425.pdf, 20 Apr. 2017.
[30] Editorial Board, We hebben een Minister van Klimaat en Energie nodig, www.duurzaamnieuws.nl/we-hebben-een-minister-van-klimaat-en-energie-nodig/, 14 Mar. 2017.
[31] H ench, S., Why are car manufacturers ignoring hydrogen engines? www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2017/06/27/why-are-car-manufacturers-ignoring-hydrogen-engines/#44bdb0d4027d: No fuel stations, no green sources, non-competitive price per unit.
[32] V erbeek, R., Zyl, S. van, Grinsven, A. van, Essen, H. van, Brandstoffen voor het wegverkeer: kenmerken en perspectief v.2, TNO & CE Delft, Delft, June 2014.
[33] L itman, T., Land use impacts on transport, how land use factors affect travel behavior, Victoria Transport Policy Institute, Canada, April 2007.
[34] NKWK, Klimaatbestendige stad, waterenklimaat.nl/onderzoekslijnen/klimaatbestendige-stad/, 21-09-2018.
[35] V leugel, J.M. and Bal, F. 2017, More space and improved living conditions in cities with autonomous vehicles, Int. J. of Design & Nature and Ecodynamics, 12(4), pp. 505–515, 2017.
[36] Sandia National Laboratories, Renewable energy and distributed systems integration, addressing the challenges, energy.sandia.gov/energy/ssrei/gridmod/renewable-energyintegration/,21-09-2018.