OPEN ACCESS
Developing methods of aligning such important documents as regional forecasts of social and economic development, and the regional fuel/energy balance plan remains a current challenge determined by the fact that the documents are drafted in isolation, as well as by different levels of detail in projections and a mismatch between target indicators. It is necessary to ensure the priority development of complex regional energy system relative to other industries.
Research indicates the absence of a clear logic of coordinating strategies at the regional level of government in the context of the lack of any formal or even expert assessment of balance between them in terms of resources and applicability of appropriate target indicators.
The paper aims to discuss the possibility of creating a methodology for comprehensive analysis of the dynamics of energy consumption in a region within the framework of modified fuel and energy balance models that would be acceptable for use when information is scarce or limited, when the energy balance plan must be in line with the aggregate indicators of the approved forecast of social and economic development, and both documents have to be monitored for compliance with law. The paper sets out the authors’ methodological approach to compiling variants of the fuel and energy balance plan, possible errors and incomplete data in statistics as well as standards for forecasting accuracy.
accuracy, dynamics, energy conservation, energy efficiency, forecast, fuel/energy balance plan, information, randomness, regional economy, trends
[1] World Energy Outlook, available at http://www.iea.org/bookshop/700-World_Energy_ Outlook_2015
[2] Federal law № 282, On official statistical accounting and state statistics system in the Russian Federation of 29 Nov 2007 (edited 23 Jul 2013), [in Russian], available at http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_72844/
[3] Federal law № 172, On strategic planning in the Russian Federation of 28 Jun 2014, [in Russian], available at http://www.rg.ru/2014/07/03/strategia-dok.html
[4] Danilov, N., Silin, V., Dobrodey, V. & Popov, V., Energy problems of the rational use of the economic potential of the region. WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, 190, pp. 419–423, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.2495/EQ140401
[5] Fuel and energy balance plans, [in Russian], available at http://www.eriras.ru/data/4/rus.
[6] Bashmakov, I.A., Siniak, YV. & Makarov, A.A., Costs and Benefits of Low-Carbon Economy and Social Transformation in Russia, [in Russian], Centre for Effective Energy Use: Moscow, 178, 2014.
[7] Bashmakov, I. & Myshak, A., Factor analysis of evolution of russian energy efficiency: metodology and outcomes, [in Russian]. Problems of Economics, 10, pp. 117–131, 2012.
[8] Brandoni, C. & Polonara, F., The role of municipal energy planning in the regional energyplanning process. Energy, 48, pp. 323–338. 2012.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2012.06.061
[9] Sampaio, H.C., Dias, R.A. & Balestieri, J., Sustainable urban energy planning: the case study of a tropical city. Applied Energy, 104, pp. 924–935, 2013.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2012.12.022
[10] Tracking Industrial Energy Efficiency and CO2 Emissions, OECD/IEA: Paris, 321, 2007.