Future Disaster Scenario Using Big Data: A Case Study of Extreme Cold Wave

Future Disaster Scenario Using Big Data: A Case Study of Extreme Cold Wave

S.J. Park D.W. Kim J.H. Kim J.H. Chung J.S. Lee 

Safety Division, National Disaster Management Research Institute, South Korea

Page: 
362-369
|
DOI: 
https://doi.org/10.2495/DNE-V11-N3-362-369
Received: 
N/A
| |
Accepted: 
N/A
| | Citation

OPEN ACCESS

Abstract: 

The ability to predict the future was considered a very important factor for humanity since long ago. Future prediction, which was non-scientific, took on significant developments with the advancement of science and technology. Nevertheless, predicting the future is still not an easy task. Therefore, it is more essential to develop diverse future scenarios for establishing policies with a clear vision on the personal, or even national levels rather than attempting to precisely predict a specific future event.

Particularly, future research plays a crucial role in the field of disaster management to prevent national crises. Future disasters could also result in an unimaginable scale of damages due to the complex network development of our society. Thus, it is necessary to develop scenarios in advance from the perspective of potential damages  caused by disasters.

Future scenario development largely comprises quantitative and qualitative methods, which are applied identically in the field of disaster management. Quantitative method is developed using various statistical methods based on numerical data,  while qualitative method is developed based on the intellect of a group of experts. In this study, the latter method is used because of the unpredictable nature of disasters. Furthermore, in order to provide a solution for the biased opinions that may occur from the group of experts, big data is used to propose a method for developing future disaster scenarios. The results from this method are preferred to efficiently develop future disaster scenarios, because the opinions of the group of experts are mostly biased.

Keywords: 

 big data, cold wave, future disaster, future scenario

  References

[1] Choi, H.S., Theory and methodology of futures study. Korean Sociological Association, 13(1), pp. 197–230, 2012. (In Korean).

[2] Hur, J.Y. & Lee, J.H., Study on building a disaster management system responding to future  disaster -using expert survey method. Crisis and Emergency Management, 10(10), pp. 173– 195, 2014. (In Korean).

[3] Boin, A., Ekengren, M. & Rhinard, M., Protecting the union: analysing an emerging policy space. Journal of European Integration, 28(5), pp. 405–421, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07036330600979573

[4] Quarantelli, E.L., Lagadec, P. & Boin, A., A heuristic approach to future disasters and crises: new, old, and in-between types. Handbooks of Disaster Research, Springer: New York, pp. 16–41, 2007.

[5] Kosow, H. & Gaßner, R., Methods of future and scenario analysis; overview, assessment, and selection criteria. German Development Institute, 39, pp. 1–133, 2008.

[6] IPCC, IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 (AR4), 2007.

[7] IPCC, IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, 2014.

[8] Government Office for Science, Future Flooding: executive summary, 2004.

[9] London Resilience Team of Greater London Authority, London Community Risk Register, 2011.

[10] Public Safety Canada, All Hazards Risk Assessment Methodology Guidelines, 2012.

[11] Homeland Security, Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Guide –  Comprehensive Preparedness Guide (CPG) 201, 2nd edn, 2013.

[12] Helbing, D., Ammoser, H. & Kühnert, C., Disasters as extreme events and the importance of network interactions for disaster response management. Extreme Events in Nature and Society, pp. 319–348, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/3-540-28611-x_15