Jamshid Abdunazarov* | Kudratulla Azizov | Ilkhomjon Shukurov
OPEN ACCESS
The article is devoted to the problems in the analysis of road safety in the cities of Uzbekistan, specifically addressing issues with the occurrence of traffic accidents and the analysis of their statistics. The purpose of the article is to study the relationship between violations of traffic rules and the occurrence of traffic accidents in Uzbekistan. This study used the statistical method of correlation analysis and revealed a linear correlation between factors such as the number of traffic violations – the number of traffic accidents; the number of traffic violations – the number of fatalities from traffic accidents; the number of traffic violations – the number injured by traffic accidents; the number of traffic violations – the number of traffic accidents with economic damage. To determine the degree of correlation between the number of violations of traffic rules, the number of road traffic accidents and their consequences, the authors used the coefficient of determination. The results of the study showed that the number of traffic violations is negatively correlated with the number and consequences of traffic accidents. The authors argue that the methodology for registering a traffic accident in Uzbekistan requires modification and that a traffic accident is affected not only by violations of the rules of the road for drivers but also by other factors, such as the design of elements of the road traffic network.
correlation analysis, road safety, traffic accident, traffic violations, Uzbekistan
The number of road traffic deaths continues to climb, reaching 1.35 million worldwide a year. The rates of road traffic deaths relative to the size of the world’s population have stabilized in recent years, but 93% of the world's fatalities on roads occur in low- and middle-income countries, even though these countries have only approximately 60% of the world's vehicles. Road traffic accidents cost most countries 3% of their gross domestic product. More than half of all road traffic deaths are among vulnerable road users: pedestrians, cyclists, and motorcyclists. The data presented in “The Global Status Report on Road Safety 2018” of the World Health Organization show that progress has been achieved in important areas such as legislation, vehicle standards and improving access to post-crash care [1, 2].
The statistics show that an increasing number of traffic accidents is one of the initial problems for all countries. This is particularly true for those countries in which economies are developing progressively, called developing countries, such as Uzbekistan. The population of Uzbekistan is more than 34 mln [3, 4]. and the length of its road network is 184,783 km, of which public roads represent 42,530 km, internal local roads represent 71,324 km, and city streets and roads represent 69,229 km. Public roads are the main highways in this country [5, 6].
According to the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting, Uzbekistan has the lowest rates of road mortality among the countries of the region; for every 100,000 people, there are 11.32 deaths, and losses from road accidents represent 2.8% of GDP; although this is one of the lowest indicators, according to experts, the losses from traffic accidents represent substantial amounts [7].
The study of the causes, circumstances and conditions of traffic accidents plays a critical role in the development of measures for the prevention of such accidents in road transport [8, 9]. Any accident results not only from not observing a traffic rule but also from deviations from the optimal conditions for the driver–car–road–pedestrian–environment system.
Violation of the traffic rules of the road is dangerous because there is a relationship between the number of violations and the number of traffic accidents, as shown by a number of studies by foreign scientists such as Zhan et al. [10, 11], who studied the risk factors associated with traffic violations and the seriousness of accidents in China. Harrington and McBride [12] studied traffic violations by sex, type, and age in California, USA. Pesic et al. [13] studied the possibility of improving road safety based on an analysis of a database on traffic violations in Serbia. Rimmö and Åberg [14] examined the issue of traffic rule violations and Swedish drivers' errors. Azemsha et al. [15] analysed the data of traffic accidents and their causes in the city of Gomel. Ayuso et al. [16] studied the effect of traffic violations on the cost of accidents with victims in Spain. Yusupov [17] conducted a multivariate analysis of traffic violations by drivers of vehicles in Tajikistan. Ilyina et al. [18] analysed the accident rate and the reasons for drivers violating traffic rules in the Penza region. Elliott et al. [19] studied the issues of errors and irregularities regarding the risk of motorcyclist accidents. Mesken et al. [20] examined the issue of interpersonal impairment, speeding and their relationship with traffic accidents in Finland; Parker et al. [21] investigated driving errors, traffic violations and their participation in traffic accidents. Liu et al. [22] claim that the penalty point strategy exhibits deterrent and binding effects; however, the penalty fine strategy does not show the expected effects where can subsequently reduce traffic accidents.
We have analysed data from the official database of violations of traffic rules of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Uzbekistan. For the period from 2016 to 2019, approximately 17 million traffic violations were noted. It was found that not all data from the traffic violations database can be used to improve road safety.
Therefore, it is necessary to analyse and determine which data on offences are valid or relevant for further analysis and the determination of measures. Relevant data are those that can be used for analysis, to directly or indirectly draw conclusions, and to help propose appropriate measures to improve road safety.
To determine relationships or interdependencies, statistical methods such as the regression analysis of traffic accidents and other indicators of road safety (traffic accidents and their consequences) and other known methods for the analysis of road safety can be used, depending on the specific data being analysed.
The types of data regarding violations of traffic rules are highlighted as follows:
(1). Information related to the offender: name and surname, gender, date and place of birth, address, identification number, as well as other identification data that determine and accurately identify the offender.
(2). Data associated with the place of the offence: the place, road, road sections, intersection, address with house number, etc.
(3). Data relating to the time the crime was committed: the year, month, day of the week and hour at the crime was committed.
(4). Data related to the crime committed: type of crime or legal qualification of the crime and resulting punishment.
(5). Other data - identification of the offence, information about the patrol officer who registered the offence at the police station.
To more accurately determine the relationship between the number of traffic violations and the number and consequences of traffic accidents, a correlation analysis was carried out for 14 regions of Uzbekistan.
According to the General Directorate of Road Traffic Safety of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Uzbekistan, on average, 2.0 thousand people die every year on highways [23]. Although in the republic over the past 10 years, the average number of vehicles has increased by 58% and the population by 16%, the total length of roads has increased by only 4.0 thousand km, or 2.1%.
The total number of accidents and victims in the Republic of Uzbekistan are shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2.
General statistics show that in recent years, traffic accidents and the number of injuries has been decreasing in Uzbekistan. However, experts believe that the actual situation is worse than shown by the statistics. If pay attention the number of traffic accidents in Figure 2 was the highest in 1990 and 1991, after which the number dropped sharply. This is due to the fact that in 1991 Uzbekistan became an independent country and since this year the methods of providing data on traffic accidents have changed and today this data is not available in the public domain even in Global status report on road safety of World Health Organization. And the data provided by the official authorities does not show the whole situation on the roads. When analysing road accidents by region, it can be seen that the situation has been improving over the years in Tashkent city and in the Tashkent region. However, in the Surkhandarya, Samarkand, Jizzakh, Bukhara, Namangan and Navoi regions, the number of accidents has held steady or increased (Figure 3). One of the reasons for the sharp decrease in traffic accidents in Tashkent is explained by the 2017 installation of photo and video recording systems at 115 intersections of the city, accompanied by a mechanism for imposing fines on drivers for violating the rules of the road. This technique is used by a number of foreign countries to prevent violation of traffic rules and, as a consequence, reduce traffic accidents [25-28].
Figure 1. Statistics for traffic accidents in the Republic of Uzbekistan for the period 2009-2011
Figure 2. Information about traffic accidents on roads in the Republic of Uzbekistan for the period 1980 ÷ 2010 [23, 24]: 1– the total number of accidents; 2– the number of victims in accidents; 3– the number of deaths in traffic accidents
Figure 3. The number of traffic accidents in the regions of Uzbekistan
Table 1. Statistical data on types of accidents in the Republic of Uzbekistan
|
Years |
Collision |
Rollover |
Hit a standing vehicle |
||||||
|
Total traffic accidents |
Died |
Injured |
Total traffic accidents |
Died |
Injured |
Total traffic accidents |
Died |
Injured |
|
|
2019 |
2373 |
616 |
2662 |
408 |
138 |
407 |
133 |
40 |
134 |
|
2018 |
2354 |
664 |
2797 |
423 |
183 |
404 |
117 |
35 |
115 |
|
2017 |
2228 |
616 |
2483 |
494 |
198 |
483 |
109 |
29 |
108 |
|
2016 |
2242 |
642 |
2500 |
504 |
212 |
478 |
120 |
31 |
129 |
|
2015 |
4232 |
1124 |
4752 |
833 |
314 |
817 |
184 |
61 |
178 |
|
2014 |
4206 |
1193 |
4892 |
808 |
357 |
795 |
179 |
53 |
171 |
|
Years |
Hit an obstacle |
Hit a pedestrian |
Hit a cyclist |
||||||||||||
|
Total traffic accidents |
Died |
Injured |
Total traffic accidents |
Died |
Injured |
Total traffic accidents |
Died |
Injured |
|||||||
|
2019 |
440 |
146 |
452 |
4305 |
929 |
3530 |
729 |
191 |
563 |
||||||
|
2018 |
423 |
149 |
442 |
4852 |
1035 |
4042 |
682 |
176 |
531 |
||||||
|
2017 |
359 |
134 |
339 |
4096 |
824 |
3417 |
1044 |
236 |
850 |
||||||
|
2016 |
380 |
113 |
374 |
4207 |
877 |
3509 |
979 |
248 |
777 |
||||||
|
2015 |
759 |
246 |
749 |
7815 |
1723 |
6336 |
1472 |
384 |
1128 |
||||||
|
2014 |
761 |
269 |
775 |
8453 |
1810 |
6959 |
1417 |
353 |
1121 |
||||||
|
Years |
Hit a horse-drawn transport |
Hitting an animal |
Another type of traffic accident |
||||||||||||
|
Total traffic accidents |
Died |
Injured |
Total traffic accidents |
Died |
Injured |
||||||||||
|
2019 |
36 |
5 |
34 |
8 |
4 |
6 |
85 |
||||||||
|
2018 |
40 |
5 |
40 |
4 |
1 |
4 |
95 |
||||||||
|
2017 |
27 |
4 |
26 |
7 |
4 |
5 |
86 |
||||||||
|
2016 |
34 |
4 |
37 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
87 |
||||||||
|
2015 |
72 |
11 |
70 |
16 |
8 |
12 |
153 |
||||||||
|
2014 |
75 |
13 |
70 |
6 |
1 |
7 |
158 |
||||||||
A detailed analysis of the types of accidents showed that over the past 6 years, the highest percentage is for pedestrian collisions, followed by vehicle collisions and then by collisions with cyclists. The figure shows that in 2019, 929 people were killed in accidents involving a pedestrian; 616 people in accidents involving vehicle collisions; and 191 people in accidents involving a cyclist (Table 1). Table 2 shows the approximate share of traffic violations by type.
In the Republic of Uzbekistan in recent years, traffic violations have sharply increased (Figure 4). This can be explained by the use of photo and video recording systems, which increased ability to identify violations of the rules of the road and to determine the violator. In 2019, there were 4,881,457 traffic violations, while those violations revealed by the computerized control system amounted to 1,227,844, representing a 25% increase in cited traffic violations (Table 3 and Figure 5).
Table 2. Percentage of traffic violations by type [29]
|
Type of traffic violation |
% |
|
Crossroads Violation |
15.8 |
|
Driving technically faulty vehicle |
15.6 |
|
Failure to overtake |
12.0 |
|
Failure to comply with traffic signs |
7.5 |
|
Over speed limit |
7.2 |
|
Violation of the rules for parking, stopping or starting |
6.5 |
|
Driving on the left side of the road |
3.5 |
|
Use of cars for personal gain |
2.5 |
|
Driving while intoxicated |
2.0 |
|
Violation of the rules for using lighting devices |
1.6 |
|
Violation of passenger transportation rules |
1.1 |
|
Violation of the rules for passage of railway crossings |
0.6 |
|
Blinding headlights despite an oncoming car |
0.5 |
|
Violation of cargo transportation rules |
0.4 |
|
Violation of the rules for towing vehicles |
0.2 |
|
Other traffic violations |
23 |
|
Total |
100 |
Figure 4. Traffic violation statistics
Figure 5. Statistics on traffic violations identified, 2019
Table 3. The share of traffic violations by causes in the Republic of Uzbekistan, 2019
|
Reason for traffic violation |
Quantity, pcs. |
% |
|
Failure to comply with road signs and road markings |
2383182 |
48.82 |
|
Not using seat belts |
1526803 |
31.28 |
|
Traffic violations by pedestrians |
354658 |
7.27 |
|
Lack of documents |
198018 |
4.06 |
|
Failure to comply with the speed limit |
136334 |
2.79 |
|
Parking in the wrong place (3.27 sign) |
63327 |
1.30 |
|
Ignoring traffic signals |
61989 |
1.27 |
|
Lack of insurance |
55426 |
1.14 |
|
Drunk driving |
28098 |
0.58 |
|
Using a cell phone while driving |
25037 |
0.51 |
|
Installation of sound and lighting equipment |
9911 |
0.20 |
|
Window tinting |
9219 |
0.19 |
|
Non-compliance with the requirements of the traffic police |
7217 |
0.15 |
|
Refusal to take a blood alcohol test |
5595 |
0.11 |
|
Oncoming traffic, creating a state of emergency |
4530 |
0.09 |
|
Railroad crossing violation |
4344 |
0.09 |
|
Use of defective vehicles |
2390 |
0.05 |
|
Violation of cargo transportation rules |
1330 |
0.03 |
|
Freight and passenger transportation without a license |
1082 |
0.02 |
|
Group movement |
1031 |
0.02 |
|
Monitor (display) installation in the vehicle |
846 |
0.02 |
|
Damage to traffic control equipment |
741 |
0.02 |
|
Permission to drive drunk drivers |
263 |
0.01 |
|
Using a car for personal gain |
86 |
0.002 |
|
Total |
4881 457 |
100 |
The registered number of violations of traffic rules due to excess speed represents 7.2% of the total number of detected violations, and the largest number of accidents is due to speeding – 48%. A similar comparison can be made for types of violations such as driving on the left-hand side of the road when overtaking (3.5 and 17%, respectively) and violations of the rules for crossing intersections (15.8 and 23%). This situation can be explained by insufficient control over the streets and roads to ensure that drivers observe traffic rules. Although similar statistics can be seen for the Republic of Uzbekistan, they are not available in publicly available resources.
An assessment of the correlation and regression relationships between the number of traffic violations and traffic accidents is shown in Figure 6-13 and Table 5-7.
Table 4. Comparative traffic violation data
|
№ |
Types of traffic violations |
1970 y. |
2019 y. |
|
1 |
Failure to comply with the speed limit |
7.2 |
2.79 |
|
2 |
Parking in the wrong place |
6.5 |
1.30 |
|
3 |
Ignoring traffic signals |
15.8 |
1.27 |
|
4 |
Oncoming traffic, creating a state of emergency |
12 |
0.09 |
|
5 |
Railroad crossing violation |
15.8 |
0.09 |
|
6 |
Use of defective vehicles |
15.6 |
0.05 |
|
7 |
Violation of cargo transportation rules |
0.4 |
0.03 |
|
8 |
Freight and passenger transportation without a licence |
1.1 |
0.02 |
|
9 |
Using a car for personal gain |
2.5 |
0.002 |
|
10 |
Drunk driving |
2 |
0.61 |
Table 5. Correlation between the number of traffic violations and traffic accidents (by region)
|
Variable № 1 |
Variable №2 |
Linear correlation function between variable 1 and variable 2 |
Correlation coefficient |
F test |
t test |
|
Number of traffic violations |
The number of traffic accidents |
y=342.6x+48238 |
R² = 0.478 |
F=50.4 |
t=1.20 |
|
The number of fatalities from traffic accident |
y=661.7x +16836 |
R² = 0.085 |
F=5.11 |
t=3.09 |
|
|
The number of injured from traffic accidents |
y=359.5x + 49477 |
R² = 0.632 |
F=94.1 |
t=1.74 |
|
|
The number of accidents with economic damage |
y=-5377.4x+433679 |
R²= 0.2083 |
F=13.7 |
t=1.15 |
Table 6. Comparison of traffic violations and traffic accidents (by republic)
|
Years |
Traffic violations |
Traffic accident |
Dead |
Injured |
Damage to property1 |
|
2016 |
3 385 051 |
10 212 |
2 496 |
9 845 |
8 885 |
|
2017 |
3 725 616 |
10 044 |
2 473 |
9 637 |
9 619 |
|
2018 |
4 347 824 |
8 990 |
2 262 |
8 458 |
10 951 |
|
2019 |
6 109 301 |
8 588 |
2 096 |
7 943 |
12 598 |
1Sources: Traffic police of the Republic of Uzbekistan and *Fund for guaranteeing payments on compulsory civil liability insurance of vehicle owners.
Table 7. Correlation between the number of traffic violations and road accidents (by republic)
|
Variable № 1 |
Variable №2 |
Linear correlation function between variable 1 and variable 2 |
Correlation coefficient |
F test |
t test |
|
Number of traffic violations |
The number of traffic accidents |
y = -1389x + 2E+07 |
R² = 0.826 |
F=9.53 |
t=4.1 |
|
The number of fatalities from traffic accident |
y = -6158x + 2E+07 |
R² = 0.923 |
F=24.2 |
t=6.4 |
|
|
The number of injured from traffic accidents |
y = -1213x + 2E+07 |
R² = 0.843 |
F=10.8 |
t=4.5 |
|
|
The number of accidents with economic damage |
y = 725.5x - 3E+06 |
R² = 0.953 |
F=41.3 |
t=-2.7 |
Figure 6. The relationship between traffic violations and traffic accidents
Figure 7. The relationship between traffic violations and deaths from traffic accidents
Figure 8. The relationship between traffic violations and injured from traffic accidents
Figure 9. The relationship between traffic violations and traffic accidents with economic damage
Figure 10. The relationship between traffic violations and traffic accidents
Figure 11. The relationship between traffic violations and deaths from traffic accidents
Figure 12. The relationship between traffic violations and injured from traffic accidents
Figure 13. The relationship between traffic violations and traffic accidents with economic damage
By analysing data on the number of traffic violations and the number of traffic accidents, we concluded that during the analysed period, the number of traffic violations increased and the number of traffic accidents decreased.
In 2019, the number of traffic violations increased by 80.5% compared with 2016, while over the same period, the number of traffic accidents decreased by 19%. Many researchers studying other countries [29-31] have investigated similar trends but have drawn exactly the opposite conclusions.
Other researchers have shown that there is a connection between traffic violations and traffic accidents, which means that a decrease in the number of traffic violations will lead to a decrease in the number of traffic accidents. They then conclude that eliminating the most frequent traffic violations could lead to a significant reduction in the number of traffic accidents and their consequences.
Additionally, other studies have shown that the number of fatal accidents and other consequences is correlated with the number of registered or detected violations of traffic rules.
To determine the degree of correlation between the number of violations of traffic rules and the number of road traffic accidents and their consequences, we used the coefficient of determination (R2). To determine whether the correlation was positive or negative, a correlation coefficient (R) was used.
The analysis revealed the following:
(1). The number of violations of traffic rules is negatively correlated with the number and consequences of traffic accidents;
(2). The number of traffic violations has a strong negative correlation with the number of road traffic accidents and with the number of road traffic accidents with only material damage;
(3). There is a negative correlation of average strength between the number of traffic violations and the number of road traffic accidents with victims;
(4). There is a weak negative correlation between the number of traffic violations and the number of fatalities in traffic accidents;
(5). Since the coefficient of determination does not exceed 0.9, the so-called “single factor” does not exist.
The number of traffic violations is not the only factor affecting the number and consequences of traffic accidents. A relationship was found between the number of traffic rule violations detected and the consequences of accidents.
Thus, planning and development, which should provide the methodological foundations for ensuring traffic safety when designing street-road networks, is one of the most important measures that can reduce the number of violations and, consequently, improve road safety in Uzbekistan. These types of changes will incur financial costs but will save lives and provide other benefits such as increasing the speed and efficiency of road transport.
The authors recommend that the responsible authorities modernize the registration procedure, in particular switching to the electronic registration of accidents, and the analysis of their statistics.
This work was supported by the Project IZ-2020022810 - Development of "Safe Road" software, funded by the Ministry of innovative development of the Republic of Uzbekistan.
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