Impact of RCP4.5 Climate Change Scenario on the Bioclimatic Potential of Six Selected European Locations

Impact of RCP4.5 Climate Change Scenario on the Bioclimatic Potential of Six Selected European Locations

M. Košir J. Potočnik L. Pajek 

Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering, University of Ljubljana, Slovenia

12 December 2018
| Citation



As the evidence for anthropogenic climate change is mounting, the need to evaluate its potential impacts in upcoming decades is becoming ever more important. As urbanised environments will be substantially affected, the evaluation of climate change impacts on building performance is crucial to ensure the sustainability and resilience of the built environment. In order to evaluate a building’s potential to adapt to the climatic conditions of its location, a bioclimatic analysis can be performed to determine and evaluate the potential for the application of bioclimatic design strategies (e.g. passive solar heating, shading, etc.). The presented paper reports on a bioclimatic analysis for the cities of

Paris, Berlin, Ljubljana, Moscow, Rome and Madrid performed using the BcChart tool. Firstly, the bioclimatic potential in accordance with the ‘current’ climate state (i.e. 1980-2000 period) was determined. Secondly, the current climate data were morphed using WeatherShift™ application and IPCC’s AR5 RCP4.5 climate change scenario. Then, the future bioclimatic potential was determined up to

year 2100. In order to facilitate the scenario uncertainties, the analysis was conducted for the 10th and 90th percentile of mean daily temperature change. The results show that the projected climate change will result in a noticeable shift of bioclimatic potential in all of the analysed locations. Overall, for temperate and cold climates the period of thermal balance with the environment will increase, however

under the presumption that effective overheating prevention (e.g. shading) is applied. A simple ecoeconomic analysis for Ljubljana showed that investment in automated shading is acceptable for the 30-year period. On the other hand, for Mediterranean and hot semi-arid climates, the temperature rise will result in the increased portion of the year when overheating mitigation measures are needed.


bioclimatic design, bioclimatic potential, climate change, eco-economic analysis, shading


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