Environmental Risk Assessment of Spring Floods in the Akmola Region of Kazakhstan

This research employs a comprehensive methodological framework that combines system analysis methods to thoroughly comprehend and mitigate the environmental risks associated with spring floods. This approach integrates both quantitative and qualitative techniques for effective data collection, analysis, and interpretation.

To establish a robust foundation, statistical data is gathered from various dimensions of the Akmola region, encompassing geographical attributes, soil composition, population demographics, and economic activities closely tied to water bodies. This data forms the bedrock for subsequent analyses.

The quantitative assessment comes into play to gauge the likelihood of diverse environmental risks stemming from spring floods. By utilizing statistical tools such as probability distributions and modelling, the study quantifies the potential impact of flood events on the environment and society. This analytical process systematically evaluates the range of hazards linked with spring floods.

Qualitative methods complement the investigation by delving into the patterns of negative repercussions caused by floods. Drawing from case studies, historical flood data, and situational analyses, the study uncovers recurring trends in the aftermath of flood incidents. These qualitative insights offer a nuanced comprehension of the broader ramifications of spring floods within the Akmola region.

In addition, the study incorporates comparative analysis, juxtaposing its initial findings with existing flood risk assessment research. This step contextualizes the study's outcomes within the larger academic context, identifying areas of novelty and divergence.

The study unfolds through distinct phases. It commences by systematically constructing a theoretical framework that establishes the foundational requisites for qualitatively evaluating the ecological risks emanating from spring floods and their implications for economically significant flood-prone areas. This phase also includes a systematic evaluation of various environmental risks often tied to mismanagement in sectors such as agriculture.

Subsequent stages delve into the exploration of patterns underpinning the adverse consequences triggered by floods. Analysing statistical data related to flood incidents in the Akmola region, historical floods along the river Zhabai, instances of the house flooding in Atbasar town, and the influence of water on soil conditions in flooded regions enhances the understanding of environmental risks stemming from spring floods. These insights are further reinforced by comparative analyses with existing studies on ecological risks associated with such floods.

This research methodology seamlessly integrates quantitative tools, qualitative investigations, and comparative analyses to construct a comprehensive understanding of the environmental risks posed by spring floods in the Akmola region. This multi-faceted approach aims to offer a holistic perspective on the causes and consequences of these floods, ultimately contributing to the formulation of effective strategies for risk mitigation and sustainable flood management.

Despite the robust methodological approach adopted in this study, several limitations warrant consideration. Firstly, the findings' generalizability might be restricted due to the study's focus on the Akmola region of Kazakhstan. The unique geographical, climatic, and socio-economic characteristics of this region might limit the applicability of the results to other areas with differing contexts and flood dynamics.

Secondly, the study's comparative analysis with existing research might also carry limitations. The availability of relevant comparative studies, their methodologies, and the extent to which they align with this study's objectives could influence the comprehensiveness of this analysis. Biases arising from the selection of comparative studies or the limited scope of the existing literature could impact the overall contextualization of the findings. The inherent complexity of flood dynamics and the multifaceted nature of environmental risks might render some aspects of the study's analysis simplistic or reductionist. Certain intricacies within the causes and consequences of spring floods might not be adequately captured by the methodology employed, leading to an incomplete understanding of the ecological risks involved.

This research acknowledges limitations in terms of generalizability, data accuracy, potential biases, and the complexity of flood dynamics. While efforts were made to address these limitations, they underscore the need for cautious interpretation and consideration when applying the study's findings to other regions or contexts.

Floods are significant flooding of an area caused by a sudden rise in the level of water in rivers or other water bodies adjacent to the area. Floods pose a particular danger when the flooding of area results in significant material damage, endangers the life and health of the people living in the area and causes significant disruption of agricultural activities in the areas affected by flooding. Assessing the degree of environmental risk posed by floods and spring floods is essential for predicting the development of the ecological situation in a given geographical region [9]. Until recently, effective solutions to the problems associated with protecting people and places from emergencies have involved finding and implementing ways and means of dealing with the consequences of such situations. Such efforts are very costly and entail a considerable amount of time and money, and the effectiveness of such efforts is often inadequate. The resources available, which are often very limited, should be focused on reducing the likelihood of various threats and risks, and on dealing with the possible consequences of emergencies [10].

The causes of springtime flooding in rivers are often caused by significant constriction of the river floodplain by bridges, road and railway embankments, and the construction of industrial structures in the floodplain. As a result, there is a reduction in the capacity of rivers and a build-up of water mass in the upstream areas directly during floods, which results in an increase in the total flooded area and substantial material damage. Furthermore, there is a strong correlation between high failure rates of hydraulic structures and flooding in specific geographical areas, which causes significant economic problems [11]. Compliance with the rules for economic activities in water protection areas minimises the risk of flooding and increases the frequency of spring floods, which is the key to successful economic activity in the region.

The increase in the total number of natural disasters, the economic and environmental problems they cause, the problems of life safety, and the sustainable development of the areas where economic activities are carried out have gained considerable relevance. This is in the context of the quality of economic planning and the increased social responsibility for the economic decisions made. Studies of the causes and consequences of hazardous processes that have a direct impact on human livelihoods represent a promising area of study for addressing the risks of economic activities in different geographical regions and economic sectors [12].

Among the variety of natural disasters affecting economies worldwide, floods are the most common, accounting for approximately 33-35% of the total number of disasters occurring in a single calendar year. Floods cause economic losses in dozens of countries worldwide annually, and there has been no downward trend in the risk of floods and similar disasters even in the developed world over the past few years [13].

Every year, spring floods inundate thousands of hectares of land around the world, leaving thousands of houses in flooded areas, destroying grain crops and a number of other crops. Hundreds of kilometres of roads and railways are also damaged, leading to considerable economic losses. The establishment of a forecasting service for the occurrence and development of natural situations of this kind helps to reduce the effects of natural disasters and to monitor situations directly related to human economic activity that leads to an increased risk of floods and inundation.

Often official information regarding the level of economic damage caused by natural disasters, floods, etc. should not be perceived unconditionally. This is usually explained by the fact that direct damage, caused by direct contact of flood waters with economic objects or the land on which economic activities take place, is considered [14]. In relatively rarer cases, indirect damage is considered, which is mainly caused by losses from disrupted economic relations, falling economic output, and problems with banking and business operations.

The serious economic and environmental damage caused by floodwaters to the economic activities of the flooded areas and to the soils in the flood zone requires intensified investigation into the potential flood hazards to lands in the spring flood areas and to the entire inundated area. Moreover, studies should address the issues of providing organisational and practical measures to reduce the risk of the occurrence of problematic situations, both natural and man-made [15]. There should be a practical methodology for determining the extent of economic damage under different emergency conditions at reservoirs adjacent to inundation sites.

Floods that result in significant flooding are caused by considerable rises in water levels during spring floods, ice jams, wind-driven surges, and man-made accidents involving the bursting of lakes, hydraulic structures, or the etching of water masses [16-18]. Consideration should be given to the fact that floods are relatively short-lived rises in river water levels caused by the melting of snow masses with the onset of spring thaw, and also by heavy and intensive rainfall and the drawing of water from the reservoir. Seasonal floods occur annually at the same time of year, are rather long-term processes and significantly increase the water content of the rivers, which results in a rise in their level.

The consequences of spring floods, inundations, and floodwaters are negative and extensive, and they cause significant direct and indirect damage to the economic activities of flooded areas. Indirect and direct losses from natural disasters can be expressed both in terms of damaged infrastructure in flood areas, destroyed residential and public buildings, destruction of economic crops, deterioration of agricultural soil quality, and in terms of human casualties, loss of life, and injuries among the population. Furthermore, indirect damages can include a significant reduction in the economic development of flooded regions, a decline in the living standards of the bulk of the population, and the high material costs of post-disaster recovery and reconstruction of the destroyed economy [19, 20].

Today, a system has been adopted to determine the degree of flood danger and the extent of an impending emergency by comparing the level of river rise with its nominal level. The total flooded area has a direct relation to the greatest level of water rise in the river when the surrounding area is flooded. It is possible to assess the prospects for overcoming an emergency situation caused by a river overflow and flooding, depending on the rate at which the floodwaters recede.

Over the last few decades, there have been steady upward trends in losses from floods, even though extensive flood protection measures have been implemented. A similar situation occurs during relatively minor and typical flood events. Among the main reasons for this are: the progressive reduction in the capacity of drains to accumulate water masses due to numerous anthropogenic phenomena, such as large-scale deforestation, drainage of wetlands, and the erosion of river floodplains by hydraulic structures; the large-scale use of areas at risk of flooding for economic purposes; the increase in the total number of floods caused by purely man-made factors, in particular accidents at water intake facilities; the significant reduction in the overall number of activities aimed at flood prevention and mitigation as a result of drastic cuts in funding [21-25].

According to current economic calculations, when there is a flood with about 1% of annual precipitation, an area of up to 1,405,000 ha is flooded, at least one-third of which, according to rough statistical calculations, is agricultural land. The flooded area will cover several hundred settlements, with the entire population. Spring floods are caused by a sudden rise in the water level of rivers, high rainfall, and melting snow. A timely assessment of the likelihood of flooding in a given geographical area can provide an opportunity for timely assessment of the situation and preparation for a set of measures to prevent its development, which can significantly reduce the level of economic damage from flooding [26].

The development of a system for assessing the potential extent of a spring flood and its hazard to economic activity in a geographical region identifies the most hydrologically hazardous areas of the country. This can be used to further assign these areas to specific zones, determining the potential scale of an emergency event in each area, and generating a rough estimate of the expected consequences, both economic and social. It is also important to assess the level of environmental risks posed by the spring flooding as a consequence of disrupting the ecological balance of the region and creating a potential hazard for future economic activity.

The general conditions for the occurrence and development of floods and inundations determine the possibility to categorise floods into several main groups. In particular, these include floods caused by seasonal snowmelt and a significant increase in water flow from this melting, occurring annually at approximately the same time and called seasonal floods; floods caused by heavy rainfall, and also by heavy rainfall combined with simultaneous snowmelt in flooded regions, called flash floods; and also floods caused by significant resistance to the flow of water in a river when large amounts of ice accumulate in one place [27, 28]. The parameter of water level rise compared to the conventional water level in the reservoir, which is called "zero hydrological rise", should be considered the main characteristic of the flood that defines directly the nature of its flow. The flow rate in a flood is the total amount of water flowing through a riverbed per second.

The key characteristics of any river's water regime, such as flow and level, undergo constant changes over time. In the particular river section under consideration, the water level in the river is directly dependent on the flow rate, with the water level itself being set automatically, to the extent necessary to pass a given water mass [29]. The relationship between flow rate and water level can be expressed graphically, by measuring a series of initial parameters and determining the dynamics of their change. Such a relationship is called a hydro-stock and is one of the key characteristics of a river when considering it in detail. It is essential in determining the nature of the development of a flood or seasonal flood caused by a rise in the water level of a river [30, 31].